We are in a triangle , tagging the lower trendline today.. Everybody is ready to short oil and this selling power had pushed oil price down to the bottom of the triangle in one day. But we couldn't break the the support at 45.6$. I think tomorrow we will start to head up again and this time we will break the triangle's upper trendline.
This is not a topping pattern. This looks like a consolidation triangle to me. It's too simple to fall from here. The bull needs to kick hard the bears one more time before a strong decline. Oil still could rally 2-3 weeks and that would be enough to tag 55-60$ before the intermediate decline.
I believe this is a low risk buy now. If you go long here you could set your stop below 45.40$. I'M also buying oil in the energy trade.
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I think the patry is starting. This time we will break up from the triangle.
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Don't forget to use the stops here...
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I don't like this price action...
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Cruddest
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thewakingeye
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thinks for this clarification Cruddest :)
keefer0
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Chartwatchers - what's your thoughts now, that was quite a sell-off after EIA?
pbartashevich
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Just look at oil price as weapon in economical wars and political pressure. Around $50 is top for oil in current geo-political environment. If it goes higher - not for long time. I think it is very safe to short around $50 or any price above. At $50 most producers feel OK. To do more harm it actually must deep to 30th pretty soon. Oil will be low until spring 2018 - Russia re-election :).
andrej123456
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Of course you are right, it is a weapon since it gone down from 60USD resistance. But if USA is going to do it until 2018 as you think, on the other side it can be a lot of time for petro dollar to really collapse, because low oil price arent bad just for Russia. or they will just stop production/exports and the price will climb. I dont belevie we will go back to 30th this time, Saudis dont want to co-operate, but we will see.
pbartashevich
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All US companies hedged their production and will survive. Shoot, reload with hedges, shoot again. US dollar is not petro and not going to collapse until countries will start trading in other currencies. US actually will enjoy low oil prices and buy from Saudis. The stakes here are much bigger than US oil production companies. Saudis will always co-operate with US. They have no choice - too dependent on them in the region. There will be a big battle for market share. So far all oil producing countries just pumped more despite of price decline. It will last long time. Plus, no economic grows in the world - less demand.
We had nice correction in Bear market now oil will deep to paint second shoulder around 38ish at least or revisit lows. I don't see a bullish story here, maybe only very short term. Like Canadian fire or Nigeria rebels (media shut up about it - bearish sign :).
andrej123456
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Hmm... I bought 200 ERY ETF yesterday, so today I will have some profit. So you think the reason that the US have so big OIL oversupply is because they bought it from Saudis for low prices (and still doing that) ?? - It is quite possible in my view. But you can check this article, Iwouldnt be so sure with US-Saudi cooperation longer-term. reuters.com/article/us-column-russell-crude-saudi-idUSKCN0ZG0E1?feedType=RSS&feedName=GCA-Commodities&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter + a couple of days after the bombing terrorist attack in Saudi Arabia. Economic growth is linked to oil prices, I think, low oil prices = very low/ none economic growth = less demand. After yesterday I agree with you two, we can go back to 38 I think. But there was quite strong bull´s rally from 28 to 51 . I have a dilemma now, whether to hold The 200 ERY ETF I bought yesterday or just sell them today after NYSE will open. :)
andrej123456
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Hey, What is this ? Why such strong decline with quite normal results from EIA, today. What do you think ?
jinyuji210
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me neither.
MMadryga
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U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum
Reserve) decreased by 2.2 million barrels from the previous week. At 524.4 million
barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at historically high levels for this time of year.
Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 0.1 million barrels last week, but are well
above the upper limit of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories decreased while
blending components inventories increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories
decreased by 1.6 million barrels last week but are well above the upper limit of the
average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories rose 2.7 million
barrels last week and are near the upper limit of the average range. Total commercial
petroleum inventories increased by 3.4 million barrels last week.