An idea I just had to share, I feel USOIL will try a double top, and it just so happens this will be at the 0.618 retracement level (46.85)...its generally agreed on this site , even amongst the bulls that we will have a correction, so I've got my entry for the short, just need to see where we take profit, it could be an AB=CD all the way down to 35.80, but given the recent strength of US OIL Im going to take profit at 43.93 where we hit a support level....
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Head and shoulders top is actually more likely with previous high at 46.7
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We just got a new support trendline...but i'm not trading this long...
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It broke support and retested the neckline, now its likely to breakdown, and we short on the pullback...
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Some data just got released......dont touch it!
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If we break above the high (pink trendline)...then original idea to short at 46.85 is back on the table
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Price is very volatile...its safest not to trade when its like this.....it needs to settle down a little...
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its close.....but price is very jumpy.....Im watching price before i enter this one....
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Could do something like this....so we have just seen the left shoulder..????..
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This is the strangest looking neckline and double top formation...
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Still waiting for the 46.85...I've ordered a short there as leaving my computer to get a life...it got very close to our .618......it should draw price up like a magnet.....if it doesn't .....I went hunting and came home with nothing but I didnt get eaten by a wolf...so will go hunting again tomorrow....
Trade closed: stop reached
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Order was triggered yesterday evening.....stop loss hit at 47.11....
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This could be a false breakout....market manipulation.....the world and his wife were probably shorting it and big money stepped in...
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46.90 should now act as support for the next few hours, if it doesn't we know this is a false breakout...
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This is the weekly chart.....looks to easy to predict, doesn't it...?.
The trading communitiy is split into 2 camps.......
The Cycle Theorists
They follow market sentiment, movement of investments, cycles, and heavily rely on moving averages.......
The Technical Theorists
They follow fibonnacci and advanced trading patterns....
If this breakout holds then I will switch to cycle theory and long oil on a pullback.....0.618 fib (46.85) was the last chance for oil to follow its downtrend below the 39.00 level....I will be watching the next fib retracement level for a pullback but won't short it.......
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Short is still a possibility....
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Breaking support trendline....can short when it pulls back to trendline...or safer see previous chart...
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will break very shortly
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It tjust broke down, I entered a short with SL above the top pink trendline....TP 46.60 neckline
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Cancelled the trade and lost about 3 pips...no big deal...win big lose small... price action now showing double top is likely...
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Looks like a long drawn out affair this one........I am moving strategy to longer timeframe 4hr/daily... I will be looking for a nice reversal candle at the end the day, this will be a signal to short ...if candle is under 46.90 then the short to 43.93 - 35.80 is very much alive ...if it closes above then the cycle/mirror theory is the one I will be following and we can throw the technicals out of the window...
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So we are definitely in the bullish camp now and have to accept the cycles and sentiments theorists are driving the oil price...the support trendline once again has pushed price to a much higher high......unless we get the most miraculous reversal to 46.90 by close today, but a 60 cent spike is pretty much unheard of....best hope to enter oil is to long on a pullback....46.90 is a strong support level now , but oil has to drop out of this channel first and this might not happen until it tests the previous high of 52.60, get in to the long trade now is too risky for me in case of a reversal, like many others I wanted to get in at the bottom of this cycle at 39.20 and was waiting for a double bottom that didn't arrive...the mirror theory looks like it could actually happen at least to 60 level which is bang on the 1.61% fib extension level...the previous rally to 52.60 was a 1.27 fib extension, so this is a classic elliot wave sequence with the exception that wave 4 dipped under wave 1 on the daily chart but not on the weekly.
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correction previous high 51.60
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its a long way down...good short opportunity to support line or even the 46.90, that would be some shooting star!!!
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Its crossing the channel and fall back a bit at 48.40......but lower support on channel wil mostly likely still hold
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Falling out of channel....just completed 1.61 fib of AB=CD move......and the bulls are selling up...I ve just put short entry in with SL 48.50.....will watch price action for profit taking....
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Usually with completion of an AB=CD you can have a tight stop loss....but the upper channel support concerned me a little which is why I put the stop above it instead...
its a long way down...good short opportunity to support line, who know maybe the 46.90 by close. would be some shooting star candle!
danbar
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Did you change your mind about shorting oil in the last hour?
Trendhopper
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No...I only trade a short at a pivot point......which is 46.85 in this instance...or if price drops below the neckline which in this case would be 46.00 area....it looks encouraging for the bears as price is slow moving and bulls seem to be running out of steam....keep an eye on that pink trendline which should support the move upto 46.85....risk/reward on this trade is very good.....I only risk 2% of my account, this way i get a good nights sleep....
danbar
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So did you get filled on your short order?
mjk123
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hello! just curious about your money manegement: is 2%risk your possible loss till 'stop loss' (or pos. size?) thank you, martin
Trendhopper
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2% is the loss.....so on this trade had it worked out the gain would have been 18% on my account about 9:1 ratio.....so as long as 0.618 work at least 20-25% of the time they return money.....and they do.
mjk123
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thank you, that seems a quite reasonable guideline..
its a long way down...good short opportunity to support line, who know maybe the 46.90 by close. would be some shooting star candle!