chartwatchers
Long

Energy Trade 1.

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
2368 41 53
a year ago
I'm going to post an Energy / Stock / Metal Trade for the followers to trade.
I will post the update in the "update status" section of the portfolio post.
Starting capital is 10.000 $ in each portfolio. When I close the actual trade I will move the whole amount to the next trade - in this case it will be Energy trade 2.

Buying 300 barrels of US Crude June 2016
Price: 39,81
Margin impact : 1193 USD (11,9%)

4hrs chart:
RSI is leaving overbought territory
MACD is turning up to cross over
Price is bouncing from 100 EMA
a year ago
Comment: Oil is soaring with the weakening dollar...
a year ago
Comment:
OIL - Heading to Daily Cycle Low
a year ago
Comment:
OIL - 50 EMA is the key
a year ago
Comment: 2 days ago I posted my 2 possible scenario.
It seems we will get the 2nd scenario:
printing the DCL at the 50 EMA and bouncing from there to new highs.
Next week will give us the answer.
a year ago
Comment: We are very close to the DCL. I'm adding to the position.
Buying 200 barrels of US Crude June 2016
Price: 36.80.
a year ago
Comment:
OIL - Daily Cycle Low is in
a year ago
Comment: If we close above the 10 and 20 EMA I will continue adding to the position.
We should bounce now quite fast above the 200 EMA.
a year ago
Comment: YEP!
I think we pulled the trigger the 2nd time at the exact bottom yesterday...
a year ago
Comment: Oil seems to be holding above the 10 and 20 EMA.
Time for oill stocks to run soon.
Adding 100 ERX to the position.
(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3x)
Total position:
200 US Crude June (36.8)
300 US Crude June (39.8)
100 ERX (22.46)
Total Margin Impact : 30,9%
a year ago
Comment:
OIL - Bears are loosing control


I will continue adding ERX today up to 50% margin impact.
The position will be in strong plus.

In my own portfolio I will add various oil related stocks what I posted. I think they will start to run soon. (LGCY,OAS,CLF,VALE,SXE,HK, and maybe REXX )
REXX is not looking so good but the others what I posted 2 days ago (Oil stock tarde 1-2-3-4-5...) will be big runners in the following 5 weeks.
a year ago
Comment: Adding 100 ERX to the position at 24.17.
We will have only green candles today.
a year ago
Comment: 09.04.2016.
The portfolio is in 1270 $ plus (12.7%) as of today's close.
a year ago
Comment: LET THE WINNERS RUN !

I'm not touching the energy trade.
How many times were you watching as a bad trade destroying your portfoilio?
Is it familiar ? YOu were sitting and hoping that price is gturning up and going into the good direction.
WE ARE IN THE GOOD DIRECTION NOW - while most of the traders are shorting oil or sitting on the sidelines.
So now we have to hope that the price is going up and make us a very nice profit.
Let the position work.
a year ago
Comment: I posted ARP charts a few minutes ago.
I will add this to the energy trade. We have money to risk.

Buying 1000 ARP at 0.80.
11 months ago
Comment: Adding 100 US CRUDE June to the position.
Price : 40.56$

This is the last add in this in this daily cycle.
11 months ago
Comment: Closing all ERX positions at 30.55
11 months ago
Comment: I'm afraid that the FED is going to hike today and that will affect the stock market and oil shares also
11 months ago
Comment: I'M not touching the oil positions. Only the ERX is closed...
10 months ago
Comment: Reopening the 100 ERX position at 27.76.
10 months ago
Comment: I'm going to close the 200 US crude June Position at 45.95$.
And at the same time I'm opening 100 ERX positions at 27.93$.
10 months ago
Comment: i think that oil will have one more round in the range as the dollar bounces again. And I see more potential in ERX in the following weeks.
10 months ago
Comment: This "change" has almost the same margin impact.
10 months ago
Comment: Taking profit on 100 US CRUDE June position at 48.70
10 months ago
Comment: Buying 50 ERX at 28.22
10 months ago
Comment: Closing all the rest of the US CRUDE positions.
I have only ERX in the Energy Trade
9 months ago
Comment: I would like to reopen Energy trade 2 so I will move the capital from Energy trade 1.

Profit calculation for the closed positions:
300 barrel long: 39.81$ ----} 49$
200 barrel long 36,8$ ----} 45,95$
100 barrel long 40,56$ ---} 48,7$
100 ERX long 22,46$ ----} 30,55$
----------------------------------------------
10.371$ profit

So I will move 10.000$ starting capital+10.371$ profit and the opened positions.

Positions still opened ( I will move these also):
100 ERX long 24,17$
100 ERX long 27,76$
100 ERX long 27,93$
50 ERX long 28,22$
1000 ARP long 0,8$
9 months ago
Comment: The rest of the position ( the position still opened) in 1704$ profit at Friday's close.
9 months ago
Comment: So alltogether the Energy trade is in 120% profit in 2 months.
Agree, but i only believe it's going long 70 to 75 cents. Trade safe.
Reply
PhamPhan
a year ago
Elliott wave ABCDE .Long
snapshot
Reply
chartwatchers PRO PhamPhan
a year ago
Here also can be seen that this decline is weak....
Reply
tbuckle PRO PhamPhan
a year ago
After Friday's rise to 39.7 or whatever where do you see this going Sunday eve, Monday and in the future week/s?
Reply
adelb
a year ago
HI, not sure at this round you are right. if it breaks 38.00 is very possible the retest min of the brakeout from minimum. what make me think we are going down (maybe quicly), is that we break the trend from minimum. I don't love that kind of lines but todays pull was chirurgical.
snapshot
Reply
NihalCassim
a year ago
whats the update? oil now at 39 in june,
Reply
nexuz
a year ago
retest of 200 EMA


Bounce from 200 EMA completed yesterday - was also adding some long positions. There is probably a wedge upcoming on H1/H4

Possible Wedge forming on H1/H4
Reply
sweet!
Soon I would like to see short covering rally we have a lot of shorts agsin
waiting for the end of the world.
Reply
masterahmed
a year ago
good job great analysis
Reply
Adding 100 ERX to the position at 24.17
Reply
webmiztriz PRO
a year ago
nice reminder ... :o)
giddyup!
Reply
chartwatchers PRO webmiztriz
a year ago
:)
Better to hope on the good side....
Reply
nexuz
a year ago
congrats mate - wonderful prediction! seems like it will stabilise above the EMA 200
Reply
chartwatchers PRO nexuz
a year ago
Thanks,
I hope a lots of the followers are in energy trades now...
Reply
tcp007
11 months ago
According to CME, the odds of a June rate hike are down to 23%.
Reply
Swing_Trader
11 months ago
why do you think that?
Reply
Don´t panic =) This is a technical retrace IMO, they used the API to break through an important resistance and they may have used the official report to send it down. Somebody made some monies, now it´s time to stay low before the desicion.

Talking seriously, raising rates today would cause a great mess everywhere. Doesn´t look like Yellen style at all. If they hike, that will be in June and completely controlled and announced. So, everybody will have time to make the last bull run based on buybacks and re-planificate the investment strategy
Reply
MMadryga captain_smollett
11 months ago
I agree. We are printing some solid positive retracement candles and the covered calls are back covering their shorts in the oils stocks.
Reply
chartwatchers PRO captain_smollett
11 months ago
If no rate hike today , we get some hawkish tone.
They need the rate hike and the stock market is at the highs. In June they might not have the same conditions ...
WE see. I just want to protect the ERX profit. I'm not touching the oil positions.
Reply
captain_smollett PRO chartwatchers
11 months ago
I´d say, a rate hike is needed to show the control over the situation. It is all matter of trust. Kuroda has lost lots of trust as well as Abe, Yellen cannot allow this to happen to the FED. But, unless she has a couple of Aces in her sleeves, hiking rates now would cause a very great mess
Reply
MMadryga
11 months ago
If anyone is interested LPI just printed below the 20 EMA again over the panic selling should start moving up again.
Reply
chartwatchers PRO MMadryga
11 months ago
I think it's heading to 10$.
And the reversal could be there...
Reply
MMadryga chartwatchers
11 months ago
Thanks for your input! I am hoping that LPI follows our energy trade 1 chart and doesn't reverse until we hit the $50 mark. But do think there will be a retracement in a couple of weeks.
Reply
MMadryga chartwatchers
11 months ago
Longterm I think LPI is a M&A play.
Reply
MMadryga chartwatchers
10 months ago
This is why I like this shale play....Laredo Petroleum tests a Spraberry well in NE Reagan County at 1,982 boe/d (87% oil), Bodine A 174-173 (ALLOC-B) 2RM. Not too shabby. With a 30 year supply, great infrastructure and having not pledged all their assets, to their credit facility ie medallion pipeline (50% interest). They are profitable at $30 oil with 12% ROI and have fully hedged current production through 2016 and 2017. I think there is still a lot of upside potential to LPI. The owners have a history of creating great companies for sale in the energy sector. LPI was created with this in mind. They have a great slide deck on their website with all the details of the operation and financials. If the pull back occurs at the end of the second daily cycle and we get to your $10 reversal its worth a look. Until then I have been riding this since $4.30 and think going long will not disappoint.
Reply
kizly
10 months ago
Followed.
Reply
nexuz
10 months ago
congrats mate about 1000 points profit on that june position :)
Reply
kizly
10 months ago
Did you sold ARP?
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chartwatchers PRO kizly
10 months ago
Still holding
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kizly
10 months ago
ERX move - brave.
Reply
Smorfe
10 months ago
Great. What is your SL for ERX?
Reply
chartwatchers PRO Smorfe
10 months ago
24.50
Reply
keefer0
10 months ago
CLF triple bottom just now
Reply
keefer0
10 months ago
If oil falls, how do you expect ERX to go up?
Reply
val_trader
10 months ago
I'm short (fill the Gap of the JUL contract) from 49 with a strict stop loss
Reply
Benztownguy
10 months ago
Still holding ERX, CLF and DRYS
Reply
keefer0 Benztownguy
10 months ago
CLF is killing me :)
Reply
Benztownguy keefer0
10 months ago
got in around 3.227, so -8.3% , i`ll definitely hold it. Energy stocks will rebounce
Reply
TheDragonFly PRO
10 months ago
Wow right on. Please keep up great analysis. Appreciated your works.
Reply
Really great trades! Greetings for your success! =)
Reply
kizly
9 months ago
What leverage do you use on Forex trades?
Reply
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