Energy Trade 1.

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
2370 41 55
I'm going to post an Energy / Stock / Metal Trade for the followers to trade.
I will post the update in the "update status" section of the portfolio post.
Starting capital is 10.000 $ in each portfolio. When I close the actual trade I will move the whole amount to the next trade - in this case it will be Energy trade 2.

Buying 300 barrels of US Crude June 2016
Price: 39,81
Margin impact : 1193 USD (11,9%)

4hrs chart:
RSI is leaving overbought territory
MACD is turning up to cross over
Price is bouncing from 100 EMA
Comment: Oil is soaring with the weakening dollar...
OIL - Heading to Daily Cycle Low
OIL - 50 EMA is the key
Comment: 2 days ago I posted my 2 possible scenario.
It seems we will get the 2nd scenario:
printing the DCL at the 50 EMA and bouncing from there to new highs.
Next week will give us the answer.
Comment: We are very close to the DCL. I'm adding to the position.
Buying 200 barrels of US Crude June 2016
Price: 36.80.
OIL - Daily Cycle Low is in
Comment: If we close above the 10 and 20 EMA I will continue adding to the position.
We should bounce now quite fast above the 200 EMA.
Comment: YEP!
I think we pulled the trigger the 2nd time at the exact bottom yesterday...
Comment: Oil seems to be holding above the 10 and 20 EMA.
Time for oill stocks to run soon.
Adding 100 ERX to the position.
(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3x)
Total position:
200 US Crude June (36.8)
300 US Crude June (39.8)
100 ERX (22.46)
Total Margin Impact : 30,9%
OIL - Bears are loosing control

I will continue adding ERX today up to 50% margin impact.
The position will be in strong plus.

In my own portfolio I will add various oil related stocks what I posted. I think they will start to run soon. (LGCY,OAS,CLF,VALE,SXE,HK, and maybe REXX )
REXX is not looking so good but the others what I posted 2 days ago (Oil stock tarde 1-2-3-4-5...) will be big runners in the following 5 weeks.
Comment: Adding 100 ERX to the position at 24.17.
We will have only green candles today.
Comment: 09.04.2016.
The portfolio is in 1270 $ plus (12.7%) as of today's close.

I'm not touching the energy trade.
How many times were you watching as a bad trade destroying your portfoilio?
Is it familiar ? YOu were sitting and hoping that price is gturning up and going into the good direction.
WE ARE IN THE GOOD DIRECTION NOW - while most of the traders are shorting oil or sitting on the sidelines.
So now we have to hope that the price is going up and make us a very nice profit.
Let the position work.
Comment: I posted ARP charts a few minutes ago.
I will add this to the energy trade. We have money to risk.

Buying 1000 ARP at 0.80.
Comment: Adding 100 US CRUDE June to the position.
Price : 40.56$

This is the last add in this in this daily cycle.
Comment: Closing all ERX positions at 30.55
Comment: I'm afraid that the FED is going to hike today and that will affect the stock market and oil shares also
Comment: I'M not touching the oil positions. Only the ERX is closed...
Comment: Reopening the 100 ERX position at 27.76.
Comment: I'm going to close the 200 US crude June Position at 45.95$.
And at the same time I'm opening 100 ERX positions at 27.93$.
Comment: i think that oil will have one more round in the range as the dollar bounces again. And I see more potential in ERX in the following weeks.
Comment: This "change" has almost the same margin impact.
Comment: Taking profit on 100 US CRUDE June position at 48.70
Comment: Buying 50 ERX at 28.22
Comment: Closing all the rest of the US CRUDE positions.
I have only ERX in the Energy Trade
Comment: I would like to reopen Energy trade 2 so I will move the capital from Energy trade 1.

Profit calculation for the closed positions:
300 barrel long: 39.81$ ----} 49$
200 barrel long 36,8$ ----} 45,95$
100 barrel long 40,56$ ---} 48,7$
100 ERX long 22,46$ ----} 30,55$
10.371$ profit

So I will move 10.000$ starting capital+10.371$ profit and the opened positions.

Positions still opened ( I will move these also):
100 ERX long 24,17$
100 ERX long 27,76$
100 ERX long 27,93$
50 ERX long 28,22$
1000 ARP long 0,8$
Comment: The rest of the position ( the position still opened) in 1704$ profit at Friday's close.
Comment: So alltogether the Energy trade is in 120% profit in 2 months.
Agree, but i only believe it's going long 70 to 75 cents. Trade safe.
Elliott wave ABCDE .Long
Here also can be seen that this decline is weak....
tbuckle PRO PhamPhan
After Friday's rise to 39.7 or whatever where do you see this going Sunday eve, Monday and in the future week/s?
HI, not sure at this round you are right. if it breaks 38.00 is very possible the retest min of the brakeout from minimum. what make me think we are going down (maybe quicly), is that we break the trend from minimum. I don't love that kind of lines but todays pull was chirurgical.
whats the update? oil now at 39 in june,
retest of 200 EMA

Bounce from 200 EMA completed yesterday - was also adding some long positions. There is probably a wedge upcoming on H1/H4

Possible Wedge forming on H1/H4
Soon I would like to see short covering rally we have a lot of shorts agsin
waiting for the end of the world.
good job great analysis
Adding 100 ERX to the position at 24.17
nice reminder ... :o)
Better to hope on the good side....
congrats mate - wonderful prediction! seems like it will stabilise above the EMA 200
I hope a lots of the followers are in energy trades now...
According to CME, the odds of a June rate hike are down to 23%.
why do you think that?
Don´t panic =) This is a technical retrace IMO, they used the API to break through an important resistance and they may have used the official report to send it down. Somebody made some monies, now it´s time to stay low before the desicion.

Talking seriously, raising rates today would cause a great mess everywhere. Doesn´t look like Yellen style at all. If they hike, that will be in June and completely controlled and announced. So, everybody will have time to make the last bull run based on buybacks and re-planificate the investment strategy
MMadryga captain_smollett
I agree. We are printing some solid positive retracement candles and the covered calls are back covering their shorts in the oils stocks.
chartwatchers PRO captain_smollett
If no rate hike today , we get some hawkish tone.
They need the rate hike and the stock market is at the highs. In June they might not have the same conditions ...
WE see. I just want to protect the ERX profit. I'm not touching the oil positions.
I´d say, a rate hike is needed to show the control over the situation. It is all matter of trust. Kuroda has lost lots of trust as well as Abe, Yellen cannot allow this to happen to the FED. But, unless she has a couple of Aces in her sleeves, hiking rates now would cause a very great mess
If anyone is interested LPI just printed below the 20 EMA again over the panic selling should start moving up again.
I think it's heading to 10$.
And the reversal could be there...
MMadryga chartwatchers
Thanks for your input! I am hoping that LPI follows our energy trade 1 chart and doesn't reverse until we hit the $50 mark. But do think there will be a retracement in a couple of weeks.
MMadryga chartwatchers
Longterm I think LPI is a M&A play.
MMadryga chartwatchers
This is why I like this shale play....Laredo Petroleum tests a Spraberry well in NE Reagan County at 1,982 boe/d (87% oil), Bodine A 174-173 (ALLOC-B) 2RM. Not too shabby. With a 30 year supply, great infrastructure and having not pledged all their assets, to their credit facility ie medallion pipeline (50% interest). They are profitable at $30 oil with 12% ROI and have fully hedged current production through 2016 and 2017. I think there is still a lot of upside potential to LPI. The owners have a history of creating great companies for sale in the energy sector. LPI was created with this in mind. They have a great slide deck on their website with all the details of the operation and financials. If the pull back occurs at the end of the second daily cycle and we get to your $10 reversal its worth a look. Until then I have been riding this since $4.30 and think going long will not disappoint.
congrats mate about 1000 points profit on that june position :)
Did you sold ARP?
Still holding
ERX move - brave.
Great. What is your SL for ERX?
CLF triple bottom just now
If oil falls, how do you expect ERX to go up?
I'm short (fill the Gap of the JUL contract) from 49 with a strict stop loss
Still holding ERX, CLF and DRYS
keefer0 Benztownguy
CLF is killing me :)
got in around 3.227, so -8.3% , i`ll definitely hold it. Energy stocks will rebounce
Wow right on. Please keep up great analysis. Appreciated your works.
Really great trades! Greetings for your success! =)
What leverage do you use on Forex trades?
United States
United Kingdom
Home Stock Screener Forex Signal Finder Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing Sign Out