The bulls are indeed strong, but at this current level, chasing the price is no longer cost-effective.
Trump's deadline for Iran is set at 8 PM ET on April 7th. The market is now focused on two things: either a ceasefire agreement is reached, and oil prices will instantly return to their original levels; or a real war will occur, completely locking down the Strait of Hormuz, the choke point for 20% of the world's seaborne oil, and causing oil prices to soar to $130.
The daily chart is still in an upward channel, with EMA(50)=112.03 and EMA(200)=106.71, forming a golden cross. RSI=66.10, not yet in overbought territory, indicating that buyers currently have the upper hand. However, the 4-hour chart has already shown a high-level convergence structure, and the momentum is weakening at the margin, indicating that a greater external stimulus is needed to push it higher.
The safest approach at present is to buy back in batches if there is profit-taking after a surge (at such high levels, there are many profit-taking positions), and wait for the price to retrace to around 112 without breaking through, then buy back in batches. First target: 115; second target: 118. Stop loss below 109.20.
However, pay special attention to the possibility of a substantial ceasefire announcement and be prepared to short – establish short positions above 118, with a target of 105-108. OPEC+ is expected to increase production by 206,000 barrels in May, and the threat of increased production is still looming. Once the geopolitical premium subsides, oil prices will fall rapidly.
USOIL USOIL USOIL USOIL USOILUSDT.P
Trump's deadline for Iran is set at 8 PM ET on April 7th. The market is now focused on two things: either a ceasefire agreement is reached, and oil prices will instantly return to their original levels; or a real war will occur, completely locking down the Strait of Hormuz, the choke point for 20% of the world's seaborne oil, and causing oil prices to soar to $130.
The daily chart is still in an upward channel, with EMA(50)=112.03 and EMA(200)=106.71, forming a golden cross. RSI=66.10, not yet in overbought territory, indicating that buyers currently have the upper hand. However, the 4-hour chart has already shown a high-level convergence structure, and the momentum is weakening at the margin, indicating that a greater external stimulus is needed to push it higher.
The safest approach at present is to buy back in batches if there is profit-taking after a surge (at such high levels, there are many profit-taking positions), and wait for the price to retrace to around 112 without breaking through, then buy back in batches. First target: 115; second target: 118. Stop loss below 109.20.
However, pay special attention to the possibility of a substantial ceasefire announcement and be prepared to short – establish short positions above 118, with a target of 105-108. OPEC+ is expected to increase production by 206,000 barrels in May, and the threat of increased production is still looming. Once the geopolitical premium subsides, oil prices will fall rapidly.
USOIL USOIL USOIL USOIL USOILUSDT.P 
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.