The Angels of oil successfully saved oil from falling into its ICL during the last few weeks. These kind of manipulation can hold the vehicle in a range (52-55) but as the technical traders, indicator traders and cycle traders are not getting a signal there is just no mass buying.
I was thinking a lot why was it necessary. We all know that powers don't want oil price to fall but this kind of "help" was a bit too much. Why was it so important to prevent oil from a strong intermediate decline? Price could be above 60 by now. Or if the IC decline is too strong we break below 40 and the whole World would be in a recession by now. The reason was the failed daily cycle we had in November. Even with the help of the Trump rally oil related shares seemed weak. The establishment was scared if oil starts to go down into the ICL in January shorts will come out of the caves and start to short oil to death because of the failed daily cycle. What is the doctor's order for this short disease? Let's hold oil in a never ending consolidiation where short players run out of patience as the stock market is in a rally mode , gold is rallying. So you can make money everywhere except oil. Traders got bored left the oil shorts and they forgot about the failed daily cycle.
Not me.I'm still holding my shorts. On the 10th of January oil printed its shallow DCL. That was the point where it was stopped to start the ICL decline. So we printed one more daily cycle. A billion dollar daily cycle. They had to buy every dip
ANd now we are arriving to the end of this daily cycle. The stock market is due to a correction as well. Powers not just fleeced the shorts but the longs also. There was a lot of money in longing stocks and gold at the beginning of this year. But oil was a dead money. Now when stocks will start a correction sooner or later these disappointed long traders will get out of oil longs.
I don't think Angels will try to save oil this time. They have served their purpose : the failed daily cycle is a history everybody has forgotten about it . The intermediate correction will stop between 42.5 and 45.
But it's coming. So get ready. The key is the 50 EMA.
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Look who's falling!
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50 EMA in a blink of a moment
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Oil lost the 50EMA today. Tomorrow is Friday. If they can't pull up it again above the 50 EMA early a lot of traders will exit longs before the weekend.
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If I'm right the decline should start after this small bounce. We need a deep close below the 50 EMA today
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A few days later but we are getting this red candle I was waiting for.
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50 EMA is lost.
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Here is the ascending triangle breaking down:
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That's why I told someone below I saw many times this pattern breaking to the downside...
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Suddenly it evolved into a triple top:
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It's going to be a massacre. All who was patient and still on board with me will be rewarded richly.
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-4.6% today
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That was all the pullback.. Another -2% today again. OPEC will have to pay a high price for not letting oil to fall in January....
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Let's roll into the deep again
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PI was sent out!
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New low. 200 EMA and 200 SMA is behind us. Like hot knife through butter. Another 3% today.
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Let the winners run guys! It's still going lower no reason to close the short position yet.
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Closing all oil short positions.
Trade closed manually
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DWT will print a record volume today. If the candle is red it will be a reversal candle on high volume. Someone is clearly buying oil on huge volume. I don't know who is that player but I didn't want to risk an oil intervention . It was very similar to that case I showed in the PI. I might be wrong we can get back with our shorts tomorrow...
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I was right. Big volume , reversal candle. It's a red candlestick but it seems Saudis are manipulating oil so much that this candle is green right now. :D
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tbuckle
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It's a red candlestick but it seems Saudis are manipulating oil so much that this candle is green right now. Can you please clarify. I don't understand the meaning...it's a red candle but is green right now??? Please help. Thanks
PhamPhan
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Crude oil tends to fall
UnknownUnicorn645732
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spot on !
VitalyKaminsky
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maybe ))
Hightower
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thanks Arpi. How is your short view on oil corresponding with long ngas outlook?
chartwatchers
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@Hightower, They often move in different direction.
Staxs
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@chartwatchers, So will this take us in to a DCL or an ICL then... not sure I followed that part.... if I follow correctly then this would be ICL right?
chartwatchers
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@Staxs, Every ICL is DCL as well but not every DCL is an ICL.
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@chartwatchers, OK, yes I understand that, like chapter and verser. Each "CL" is a pivot point on a 1-3 month basis or what ever the underlying cycle time is for that commodity. But from what I have gathered from your helpful guidance the ICL normally marks a phase of oncoming cycles where the second DCL after the ICL is on average stronger right? So if we drop to an ICL in March-2017 we could see a second daily cycle towards year end which is very strong?
I know it is not the place .. but I just wondered whether you updated on Natgas since you announced you would do so privatly?
I sent you an email to the email box you had posted but didn't get any update.. maybe because you didnt write of it yet..
So just let me know please , maybe I am out for some reason..