IvanLabrie
Short

Oil: Resumption of monthly downtrend?

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
1671 18 42
8 months ago
Oil             is approaching an interesting juncture, after breaking the recent swing low, creating a reaction to the upside.
I have shorted oil             from between 42 and 41, and added on the way down, but recently covered when approaching the low volume support zone in light blue.

I have added a quarterly speed line, connecting 2015's Q2's high with 2016's Q1 low, which has acted as resistance before, rejecting price at the recent top, as well as speed lines for the recent up and down swing in the daily chart .
If we look closely, we can detect that April 4th's bar, offers a nice resistance level to short against, which matches the speed line analysis I've conduced, and also, is favored by time at mode trend analysis.
We're trading below the uptrend mode, and despite finding bulls at a low volume support zone, it could very well be a short squeeze rally, and probably short lived.

If price enters my sell zone (the red box from March 31st to April 14th), we could enter short (or add to shorts in the money) with a stop loss above the 38 handle, or more conservatively, above 41.5. Target is 21.70 but monitor the support levels below.

Good luck if taking this trade.
Cheers,

Ivan Labrie.
8 months ago
Comment:
snapshot


1h uptrend, and now consolidating below resistance. Let's monitor for short entry.
8 months ago
Trade active
8 months ago
Comment: Interesting reaction to resistance.
8 months ago
Comment: A close above 39.85, and further time spent there would be instrumental for bulls.
If it doesn't happen, the quarterly speedline might act as resistance and stop this rally.
8 months ago
Comment: (Late to long, not safe to short, wait for a sign of weakness)
7 months ago
Comment: Major resistance at 40.75, let's see how it evolves from here.
7 months ago
Comment: Solid daily close, we have to monitor this one closely. I'm short usdcad and usdmxn, as we speak, and flat oil. Monitoring price action to go short when safe, or to reload longs if need be.
7 months ago
Comment: New quarterly high is impressive...now we see some profit taking. We could attempt a short and risk a rally above today's open.
7 months ago
Comment:
snapshot
7 months ago
Trade active: If you took this one with me, well done!

"2 days ago
Comment. New quarterly high is impressive...now we see some profit taking. We could attempt a short and risk a rally above today's open."

We broke the uptrend speed line, I'll place some limit orders to add on close.
If you're interested in joining my trading newsletter or private lessons, message me. I trade Forex, Equities and Commodities. Contact: skype @ ivanlabrie, PM here or QQ (2954487803).
ahmedfx
8 months ago
wti
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie TOP ahmedfx
8 months ago
I think you have a very strange idea about how an Elliott Wave count looks.
I'd reccomend checking the material by Glenn Neely if you're interested in learning it.
Even then, he mentions it's not viable to do EW analysis on oil.
+5 Reply
ahmedfx IvanLabrie
8 months ago
will see
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie TOP ahmedfx
8 months ago
What do you mean?
The count is not correct, it's not up to discussion if that's what you mean.
(I don't disagree that this might be a retracement in an uptrend)
We'll see.
+2 Reply
pipizer IvanLabrie
8 months ago
I think he said will see Glenn Neely's material :P
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie TOP pipizer
8 months ago
I wasn't sure, maybe it was a language barrier. My apologies if that's the case.
(thanks for the comment)
Reply
NickCoulby PRO IvanLabrie
7 months ago
looks like a nice count to me
Reply
IvanLabrie TOP NickCoulby
7 months ago
:p
Reply
moneymaking
8 months ago
Nice entry to short oil, low risk to reward. Thank you for sharing mate :)
Reply
crncy PRO
8 months ago
very nice.
snapshot
Reply
IvanLabrie TOP crncy
8 months ago
Yes, I have entered a short here again.
Reply
I_see_BTC PRO
7 months ago
Well, that was certainly a beautiful open for oil shorts! Congrats to those in position. You should perhaps schedule a vacation to Doha soon :-)
Reply
IvanLabrie TOP I_see_BTC
7 months ago
snapshot


Luckily, yeah.

I expected a bearish outcome for news, based on the charts and commercial traders positioning in CoT. (and the fact that Iran doesn't want a deal, and Arabia and Russia are at record output levels anyway, so cutting here, when they can't even produce faster haha...who are they kidding?)
Reply
I_see_BTC PRO IvanLabrie
7 months ago
Right you are. Even though I knew Iran would have no interest in cutting production, of course (and the Saudi's expected that), I really thought the pressure of the cartel as-a-whole would carry more weight. Glad I didn't long WTI on Friday after all :-)
Reply
IvanLabrie TOP I_see_BTC
7 months ago
Sometimes being flat is the right trade.
Let's take the next move in it man.
I'm in, might add on retrace.
Reply
I_see_BTC PRO IvanLabrie
7 months ago
That is truth.
I'm going to grab a little rest so I can be up for the Frankfort and London open tomorrow AM. Besides WTI, I'm watching USDCAD based on the cartel info. DXY has pulled back this year but it could now offer a nice long entry over CAD with weakening oil, yes? I say no fundamental weakness in DXY, and CAD has been riding high on the oil market correction of a sustained down-move (?) I'll be up before the volume hits this morning looking for a pullback entry in WTI (short) and USDCAD (long). Wishing us both luck! :-) Also, US home sales and DOE oil inventory reports upcoming Wednesday to be mindful of.

Not sure if you play at the OKcoin casino, but if so I hope you caught my cypher from the other day.


BTC weekly futures (OKcoin) - Bullish cypher
Reply
IvanLabrie TOP I_see_BTC
7 months ago
Yes, cad shorts. I think it's failing at a crucial spot (see my recent cadusd publication). It appeared to have broken the resistance but then failed miserably post opec.
Reply
IvanLabrie TOP IvanLabrie
7 months ago
(and no, I did buy at 411 some time ago, and before a bit lower, not trading short term in BTC)
Reply
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