We failed to break the 200DMA on the weekly chart. On top of that we had a clear reversal candle and volume on 3/14/2017 (idea thanks for Chartwatchers. Furthermore, all indicators are signaling a bullish pivot.
I am not sure how long this bull will last, so I will have a tight stop-loss.
Oil $44 coming. On weekly though, this has no room to move lower. Will keep my short and wait for long entry.
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Oil $54 is possible based on weekly chart. Historically, Oil does not reverse according to daily momentum when the sentiment is super bullish. There is only a 25% chance this is going to reverse big enough to turn weekly red and the following ones lower. This might go and try to touch the 10DMA, but with not much luck. For me, the % are not big enough to make profits short. More skilled traders with 100k+ in liquidity might be able to scalp some profits. That's my opinion. Sorry for the confusing posts in the past month.
Update: despite my previous update, I've taken a small position on oil short. 4H BB widening dangerously. This could be a hot knife.
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As I said, this was a hot knife cutting through butter. Yet, be very cautious at these levels if you are short. RSI 7 is very nasty can casually reverse when around 30 on the DAILY. I have taken some profits off the table. Overall good trade. We agreed with @chartwatchers that oil could move lower to 48ish, but the risk to reward is very low. Definitely not a trade to enter now. Don't be greedy (Rule Number 1).
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About to close remaining position. If 51.24 breaks with high volume.
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Daily RSI did not reverse. Looks like we are going for the 200DMA on the daily.
Indeed shale is a problem, however OPEC members cheating is a bigger problem in the short term. Long term is anybodies guess Maximum I can see shale rising to long term is 10 mbpd