OIL - Bounce is off the table

During the last 2 weeks oil was consolidating. As today we broke 44.40$ the bounce above 50$ is off the table for 2 weeks.
First we need to print the daily cycle low in 2 weeks. When oil bottoms and start to rally again oil related stocks will rally.
It will also give a big push to the general stock market as well.

We just have to wait for oil to bottom. I will be buying between 38-42$.
It seems strong not a big decline. We might bottom at 42$. Time will tell.

I'm not shorting oil. If something the World's powers don't want - especially USA-Govt before elections -- : an oil related recession because of falling oil prices.
So oil at 40$ is a buy.

Comment:

I still can read at many forums that traders are waiting for oil to fall below 30$.
This is the thing just not going to happen. We are in the phase of intermediate correction in oil.
Look at that correction! This is a very weak decline. The reason for that is the oil related shares.
With S&P at new highs , Nasdaq near to new highs oil shares simply cannot fall.
If oil shares are not falling oil will not print a serious decline even at the intermediate correction.
So if you are shorting oil in the next 2-3 weeks be ready for 3-4$ pop when market realizes that oil shares are breaking out of consolidation and oil had no business below 50$.
I will be launching the Energy trade 4 - the portfolio is in in +140% - in 2-3 weeks and this is going to be a long trade. So those who were making big money with me in oil from February till May don't get stucked in a looser short trade when we are starting to long it. This run is going to be better then the Feb-May one.

Comment:

IXE before the breakout if that breaks out oil bears will be toasted.

Comment:

It's forming an ascending triangle.

Comment:

3rd day of falling. Oil hasn't fallen for 3 days since the middle of June.