WTI on D1 has complete a Wyckoff distribution. The last push to $76 marked the UTAD and what we are witnessing now is the markdown. Its difficult to predict the extension of the markdown but $59 per bbl would not be exaggerated. What is of high probability is that we will witness another substantial leg down, regardless of the retrace. An extended tgt (low probability) would be $54 however, with Iran and Venezuela in the headlines these days, it would be difficult to achieve.
Trade active:
Look for W5 of the minor bear count to stop either @ ~62,3x or 61,8. That would be a good place for a 2,5$ retrace to mid 64 (if it will not retrace there before - if it will, I would contemplate shorting it).
Comment:
Didn't stop @ 61,8. But stopped @ 61,31. Looking for a retrace to mid 64.
Comment:
Such a retrace (64,6) can be possible solely if the election + reports will favor it. If not, not too many stops on the way to 59.