The explanation is simple:
1. I don't want to enter a long trade because we are too late in this rally since the mid of Feb. Sooner or later we are having an intermediate correction and I simply cannot predict this late we are going up first to 55$ - in a shorter daily cycle- or going down to 40$.
We might be printed the DCL yesterday - at the 100 just like the at the 1st daily cycle low - and when stocks breaking to new highs next week oil will break up to 55-60$. But there is no guarantee for this and we are late in this rally to chase the price.
2. I don't want to enter a short trade because as you saw we broke down the triangle on Thursday there was no strong follow through. So if we start to go down to the ICL this decline will not be a steep decline. Just a slow whipsawing move which would wear me out. And this move might be only 3-4 $...
We will find better place for our money in the next month.
So the plan is the following for the next month:
I would like to short oil from 55-60 $ in the next 2 weeks if it pops or would like to enter a long at 40$ in the next 4-6 weeks.
Reserve) decreased by 2.5 million barrels from the previous week. At 521.8 million
barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at historically high levels for this time of year.
Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 1.2 million barrels last week, and are well
above the upper limit of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories increased while
blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories
increased by 4.1 million barrels last week and are well above the upper limit of the
average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories rose 2.6 million
barrels last week and are at the upper limit of the average range. Total commercial
petroleum inventories increased by 7.1 million barrels last week.