chartwatchers

OIL - Not for trading

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
3077 23 63
5 months ago
I will explain in this post why I'm not trading oil             in the following 1 month.

The explanation is simple:
1. I don't want to enter a long trade because we are too late in this rally since the mid of Feb. Sooner or later we are having an intermediate correction and I simply cannot predict this late we are going up first to 55$ - in a shorter daily cycle- or going down to 40$.
We might be printed the DCL yesterday - at the 100 EMA just like the at the 1st daily cycle low - and when stocks breaking to new highs next week oil             will break up to 55-60$. But there is no guarantee for this and we are late in this rally to chase the price.

2. I don't want to enter a short trade because as you saw we broke down the triangle on Thursday there was no strong follow through. So if we start to go down to the ICL this decline will not be a steep decline. Just a slow whipsawing move which would wear me out. And this move might be only 3-4 $...
We will find better place for our money in the next month.

So the plan is the following for the next month:
I would like to short oil             from 55-60 $ in the next 2 weeks if it pops or would like to enter a long at 40$ in the next 4-6 weeks.
5 months ago
Comment: Now you see why I didn't want to short oil...
snapshot
val_trader
5 months ago
I' m stuck in the middle, long from 47...
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keefer0 val_trader
5 months ago
lol, me too, but short from $47
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chartwatchers PRO keefer0
5 months ago
That's what I'M talking about : coin toss in the next month.
At the end you will close the trade by loss controlled by your emotions.
The 2nd intermediate cycle in oil during the fall will be huge especially in oil stocks.
We are going to make a terrible money there. It will be like gold miners in the last 2 months...
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Cornhub keefer0
5 months ago
lmao...you guys...XD
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NihalCassim
5 months ago
I look at your post from 14 days ago "oil summer sale" and it has played out perfectly so far. You were bearish and oil did come down. Right after that call you got double-minded and your conviction ran low and you felt that its going back to $55-60 even though you mentioned sometime ago that the 3rd cycle may not happen. I'm confused as to why you are looking at $55-60. I would buy oil here for a $1-2 bounce (as per your "oil summer sale" outlook) but I can see $55-60 yet. Can you please help me understand. I've been following you religiously since April and you've helped me recover 90% of my life time losses in oil trading. Thank you.
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Bearbud NihalCassim
5 months ago
Do you just follow him on tradingview or do you get on a different website?

Thanks
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chartwatchers PRO Bearbud
5 months ago
No website yet.
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Bearbud chartwatchers
5 months ago
Thanks for the info. I will continue to follow you and hope to make up some of the 15k I lost following research trading issues.
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NihalCassim Bearbud
4 months ago
He is very good. I dont follow anyone else. I do form my own opinion before I see what he has to say and 90% of the time I follow his direction. Twice Ive made a U turn because of his advice. I do however make quick turnarounds (between $1-3) as I trade WTI in an overseas market and I face high market maker costs.
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Bearbud NihalCassim
4 months ago
Thanks for the information. Do you trade on FXCM or through a broker like TDAmeritrade?
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NihalCassim Bearbud
4 months ago
I trade in Pakistan. We have a very advanced system here, its online and everyone trades directly on the exchanges platform. All contracts are cash settled, the exchange gets a price from other global exchanges, a local market maker keeps 2 cents on each side and we basically trade against the market maker (so we lose 4 cents on a round trip). Commissions, exchange costs and trading taxes amount to 3 cents per contract round trip. So you start off 7 cents down. Max limit is 100,000 bbls per person. On the positive side, money earned from trading from the exchange is taxed at fixed 5%.
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NihalCassim NihalCassim
4 months ago
Sorry commission etc are 3 cent a bbl (not contract). so 10,000 bbls cost $300 in commish.
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I will try to short it at $49 ish. Should be a lot safer. I don't believe oil goes too far beyond $50.
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shinsky
5 months ago
Thanks for the warning Apri!
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MMadryga
4 months ago
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum
Reserve) decreased by 2.5 million barrels from the previous week. At 521.8 million
barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at historically high levels for this time of year.
Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 1.2 million barrels last week, and are well
above the upper limit of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories increased while
blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories
increased by 4.1 million barrels last week and are well above the upper limit of the
average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories rose 2.6 million
barrels last week and are at the upper limit of the average range. Total commercial
petroleum inventories increased by 7.1 million barrels last week.
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verlin03
4 months ago
possible but you need lower gasoline prices to spur demand (which was horrible over 4th of July). hard to predict that far out. that's going to be the battle. does increasing rig count slow US production decline? will lower gasoline prices spur demand? I'm pessimistic. you do realize that you are expecting a rebound in September when crude demand always falls in the US. analyze this data for basics.

http://www.howardweil.com/docs/reports/weekly%20reports/refiningreport.pdf
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traderzaius
4 months ago
It's a tough trade in either direction, you are right. I expect it to chug along slowly. ICL should not be too bad.
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NihalCassim
4 months ago
could you please update the second chart posted here...its dated july 12. thanks
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nbn007 PRO
4 months ago
Flag on H4?
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andrej123456
4 months ago
After EIAs news , They tried to short it again (after the stock news), but it popped up. Could today´s low at 43,64 be 3rd cycle´s bottom ? What do you thnink ?
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chartwatchers PRO andrej123456
4 months ago
2 weeks more before I would call the bottom. 43.64 should break down.
+1 Reply
andrej123456 chartwatchers
4 months ago
you are so good.
Reply
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