chartwatchers

OIL - Not for trading

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
3082 23 65
I will explain in this post why I'm not trading oil             in the following 1 month.

The explanation is simple:
1. I don't want to enter a long trade because we are too late in this rally since the mid of Feb. Sooner or later we are having an intermediate correction and I simply cannot predict this late we are going up first to 55$ - in a shorter daily cycle- or going down to 40$.
We might be printed the DCL yesterday - at the 100 EMA just like the at the 1st daily cycle low - and when stocks breaking to new highs next week oil             will break up to 55-60$. But there is no guarantee for this and we are late in this rally to chase the price.

2. I don't want to enter a short trade because as you saw we broke down the triangle on Thursday there was no strong follow through. So if we start to go down to the ICL this decline will not be a steep decline. Just a slow whipsawing move which would wear me out. And this move might be only 3-4 $...
We will find better place for our money in the next month.

So the plan is the following for the next month:
I would like to short oil             from 55-60 $ in the next 2 weeks if it pops or would like to enter a long at 40$ in the next 4-6 weeks.
Comment: Now you see why I didn't want to short oil...
snapshot
After EIAs news , They tried to short it again (after the stock news), but it popped up. Could today´s low at 43,64 be 3rd cycle´s bottom ? What do you thnink ?
Reply
chartwatchers PRO andrej123456
2 weeks more before I would call the bottom. 43.64 should break down.
+1 Reply
andrej123456 chartwatchers
you are so good.
Reply
Flag on H4?
Reply
could you please update the second chart posted here...its dated july 12. thanks
Reply
It's a tough trade in either direction, you are right. I expect it to chug along slowly. ICL should not be too bad.
Reply
possible but you need lower gasoline prices to spur demand (which was horrible over 4th of July). hard to predict that far out. that's going to be the battle. does increasing rig count slow US production decline? will lower gasoline prices spur demand? I'm pessimistic. you do realize that you are expecting a rebound in September when crude demand always falls in the US. analyze this data for basics.

http://www.howardweil.com/docs/reports/weekly%20reports/refiningreport.pdf
Reply
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum
Reserve) decreased by 2.5 million barrels from the previous week. At 521.8 million
barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at historically high levels for this time of year.
Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 1.2 million barrels last week, and are well
above the upper limit of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories increased while
blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories
increased by 4.1 million barrels last week and are well above the upper limit of the
average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories rose 2.6 million
barrels last week and are at the upper limit of the average range. Total commercial
petroleum inventories increased by 7.1 million barrels last week.
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Thanks for the warning Apri!
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I will try to short it at $49 ish. Should be a lot safer. I don't believe oil goes too far beyond $50.
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