Oil still remains in my point of view is being to reach the level at around 54.xx in the coming weeks; for your reference take a look at my update about USOil month ago at following link Currently WTI has made a corrective and it probably finds a support at my drawn projected trendline in yellow, which indicates us that a next upward movement has been forming now to fulfill the 5th waves; anyway, WTI price must yet break out the upper green zone, then 54.xx is not far to reach anymore. Trade well! m2m
hi.... pl do consider the following fundamentals and advise (a) if Oil was really in so great demand, world leaders like Putin would not have made statements for pushing prices up.. (b) if you want to see the real price of Oil... let the exchanges insist on 100% margin and physical delivery... you will see Oil at less than $20 pbbl. (c) Oil and Coal are the most polluting energy sources and being fast replaced by clean and virtually free Solar energy. Oil, anyways, will not survive for more than 20-25 years from now.... (d) Saudi realises this and hence wants to sack off its ARAMACO shares...
DrFaust_Official
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thanks for your comment. It can be that Oil will more cheaper according to fundamental point of view. Anyway to have a downward movement, the prices would be developed now/recently into another pattern. At the current moment ( week or/and some weeks), according to technical point of view, an appetite to long Oil is yet still visible and avialable. Let's say it will be up and touch the last high again and but could not break it out, volume will be tighten and the interest to long WTI lost, then we can see such as a kind of distribution and a bear could happen. We are smaller traders and we trade according to the momentum, in which price up we long, price down we short, if we have luck, then T/p will be hit, but if the price run against us, then we lost, so it the trading game here :)
ma.sanjuy
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hi... tks for yr comments. I feel that fundamentals eventually take over the technicals.
DrFaust_Official
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yeap :) what you feel is then sentimental.
hthieuvn
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Hi all, may I join in your discussion. Firstly thank you all for your sharing ideas and opinions in both fundamental and technical sides. I think all what you said are true in some cases. So may I share my own view here as fulfil all discussion above:
- For crude oil/energy market analysis: it is more based on fundamental factors analysis, especially supply and demand factors in physical trading. In this purpose, technical analysis is one of tools, NOT THE ONLY TOOL, to use for projecting/predicting the development of price in short/medium/long term in the futures.
- For crude oil/commodity trading: I think all you know that it depends on style you trade (day/swing) but technical analysis normally is the main tool to use effectively because (in short term) the momentum and development of price showing/including all the factors, sentiment and even psychology of the market.
For me, we trade crude oil in the futures market is very different with trading crude oil in the physical market. The futures market is just like a factor and a trend of price. However, it still always change so that's why we have contango/backwardation situations in futures contracts.
Finally, it depends on your purpose: just trading or investing or hedging, but should not use the wrong tools for your purpose even the combination of both fundamental and technical analysis is good in some cases.
It is just what I think and just would like to contribute to your interesting discussion.
Thank you for taking your time of sharing ideas and comments and reading my words.