USOil moved exactly as we anticipated. first the third corrective leg, second the impulse lower we were anticipating. Next I will focus on whether we see a correction or a sharp reversal.
My previous post about this instrument can be found below as 'related idea'.
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I described my bigger picture several times and I still see both long and short as very likely for now. So let structure tell us what to trade next.
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I expect to see another leg higher to complete an ABC correction. However if structure changes I will adjust (and update). For now this is the highest probability set-up and we now have to focus on whether or not we see another minor leg lower to be next. Conservative entry will be after a minor impulse-correction which can be executed on all time frames depending on your preference.
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HaiGo
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Hi Tim any update here? Thanks.
TimStuyts
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@HaiGo, thanks for asking. I just updated the chart. Safe trades!
glaazie
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finally it moves quiet impulsive the daily correction took a long time and therefore i was a bit suspicious that oil was maybe setting up for big surprise by means of a daily uptrend break im holding it from the 54.8 level and i think there is more to come but thats only based onthe size of the correction and the time it took to develop
don't know if that is a good indicator like to hear your thoughts
TimStuyts
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@glaazie, I think the move up from the 27 zone is corrective all together. I will update the bigger picture later, however about 9 months ago I wrote that I expected USOil to hit 20. I still see that scenario as very likely although that doesn't mean that the correction from the 27 zone is already over. So I trade it step by step and then I will see where price takes me, keeping the bigger picture in mind. To me the structure for USOil lately looked like it was accumulating for a big drop. I also saw the dollar stronger in the bigger picture and that's why the real winner of this year already happened by means of that USDCAD buy trade I posted 3 weeks ago. Time analysis is certainly very important, 70% of the time the market is correcting where it is only trending 30% of the time.
glaazie
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@TimStuyts, yes i also see usoil in a weekly correction setting up for a new low once that is finished thanks for your time and insights