chartwatchers
Short

OIL - False breakout

TVC:USOIL   WTI CRUDE OIL
3546 18 65
a month ago
That's what I was afraid of. Oil             broke to new highs yesterday but there was something wrong with the breakout on the hourly chart. It was not that great breakout when you wait for the follow through.
It was like a B-rated East-German sextape from the 80s, starting with nice girls but when they starting to drop the clothes you switch the channel.
So before the serious breakout could have started someone has switched the channel and we are back in the range again.

All the indicators are showing downwards:
MACD crossed down
RSI left overbought
SlowStoch also turning down.

I think a lot of people jumped the gun and went for long. So this time we are not just going to tag the bottom of the range at 49.13$ but we are going to break it down and heading to the 50 EMA (48$). This is the blue scenario with a smaller drop.
The red scenario would like this:
As I've already mentioned this is going to be a longer daily cycle with a HCL             . The HCL             is still ahead of us.
What we don't know how strong will be the HCL             decline. We have to get prepared for a steeper drop down to the green daily cycle trendline. If we drop to this level (46.5$) we also could tag the 100 or 200 EMA.
That would be a perfect entry for our longs.

I don't like to short oil             in the middle of the 2nd daily cycle but now I'm quite sure that the late longs will be punished this time so I want to be in this 1.5-2$ decline.

I'm going to short oil             from here . Stop goes to 52.1$ and take profit to 48.1$
If you jump with me please calculate your levels depending which monthly CFD             or contract you choose.
Or just watch WTI Crude oil and take profit or stop your position when price tags 48.1 or 52.1 here.


a month ago
Comment: Patience here. We are crawling on the 10 EMA. Going to break down very soon.
snapshot
a month ago
Comment: Holding the short. I think the decline is not finished yet.
Gave back half of the green candle in 15 minutes.
snapshot
a month ago
Comment: We broke down from the green range today.
Updating oil on a new chart in 5 minutes.
a month ago
Trade closed: target reached
toothless
a month ago
I can't past the visual from your 3rd sentence to continue reading, hahaha
+3 Reply
Nightstar
a month ago
Speaking of B-rated East-German sex tape from the 80s _______________ Where's Webmiztriz?! Lol :)

Oh snap.
+2 Reply
webmiztriz PRO Nightstar
a month ago
LOL ... u know it... nice Arpi! lmao ....
+1 Reply
wait what?? is this a stock forum orrrrrrr ..... lol
+1 Reply
bertcoin PRO
a month ago
Thanks for the idea Arpi. I really loved the run UP from 43 to 50. I'm going to sit out a run down from 50 to 48 as I don't get in or out at just the right time. I'd get burned trying to scalp the smaller move. Looking for the up leg of the blue or red line. Thanks again!
+1 Reply
GeneTyne
a month ago
just a rollover. could go either way, or could be sideways for a few weeks.
Reply
piptamil
a month ago
Thanks for the chart cheers.
Reply
bracken
a month ago
The sharp drop yesterday was not unexpected ....... as the contract expired yesterday (20/10).
Reply
Staxs
a month ago
Funny post Arpi!! Going to sit on the sidelines and wait for a long opportunity, no way brave enough to short this.
Reply
Daily prices have closed above the late June breakdown zone and closed the daily twice higher than the 10/6 daily buying climax, this is still a very bullish setup in my opinion.
Reply
smitheric1970 PRO smitheric1970
a month ago
Oil rangebound and down?
Reply
niteshkumar
a month ago
absolutely great analysis
Reply
Liuqi1987
a month ago
Nice chart. Will you please share what is the HCL meaning here?
Reply
epalazzo Liuqi1987
a month ago
Half Cycle Low
Reply
ma.sanjuy
a month ago
Thanks Arpil for the update.
Reply
val_trader
a month ago
with 1$ in 1 min end EIA bullish aren't we directed to 51 ?
Reply
watsonzou26
a month ago
I am going to short oil if price goes up to 50.13.
Reply
randresc125
a month ago
Thanks.

Arpi, What do you think of OPEC meeting?
Reply
Ideas Scripts Chart
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
Italia
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Billing Sign Out