OIL - False breakout

TVC:USOIL   CFDs on WTI Crude Oil
3578 18 71
That's what I was afraid of. Oil             broke to new highs yesterday but there was something wrong with the breakout on the hourly chart. It was not that great breakout when you wait for the follow through.
It was like a B-rated East-German sextape from the 80s, starting with nice girls but when they starting to drop the clothes you switch the channel.
So before the serious breakout could have started someone has switched the channel and we are back in the range again.

All the indicators are showing downwards:
MACD crossed down
RSI left overbought
SlowStoch also turning down.

I think a lot of people jumped the gun and went for long. So this time we are not just going to tag the bottom of the range at 49.13$ but we are going to break it down and heading to the 50 EMA (48$). This is the blue scenario with a smaller drop.
The red scenario would like this:
As I've already mentioned this is going to be a longer daily cycle with a HCL             . The HCL             is still ahead of us.
What we don't know how strong will be the HCL             decline. We have to get prepared for a steeper drop down to the green daily cycle trendline . If we drop to this level (46.5$) we also could tag the 100 or 200 EMA .
That would be a perfect entry for our longs.

I don't like to short oil             in the middle of the 2nd daily cycle but now I'm quite sure that the late longs will be punished this time so I want to be in this 1.5-2$ decline.

I'm going to short oil             from here . Stop goes to 52.1$ and take profit to 48.1$
If you jump with me please calculate your levels depending which monthly CFD             or contract you choose.
Or just watch WTI Crude oil and take profit or stop your position when price tags 48.1 or 52.1 here.

Comment: Patience here. We are crawling on the 10 EMA. Going to break down very soon.
Comment: Holding the short. I think the decline is not finished yet.
Gave back half of the green candle in 15 minutes.
Comment: We broke down from the green range today.
Updating oil on a new chart in 5 minutes.
Trade closed: target reached

Arpi, What do you think of OPEC meeting?
I am going to short oil if price goes up to 50.13.
with 1$ in 1 min end EIA bullish aren't we directed to 51 ?
Thanks Arpil for the update.
Nice chart. Will you please share what is the HCL meaning here?
epalazzo Liuqi1987
Half Cycle Low
absolutely great analysis
Daily prices have closed above the late June breakdown zone and closed the daily twice higher than the 10/6 daily buying climax, this is still a very bullish setup in my opinion.
smitheric1970 smitheric1970
Funny post Arpi!! Going to sit on the sidelines and wait for a long opportunity, no way brave enough to short this.
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