Oil needs to consolidate.Trail stops,pull back to 44 is possible
As I wrote on Twitter, I closed all remaining counter longs yesterday. Frankly speeking I closed first chunk of longs too early, but net I think my avg will meet the point of the original trailing stop I should have used anyway.
Anyway, if you are still in the bullish camp, it is time to close and take partial profit and/or trail up your stops
Reasons:
- Very impressive move from the lows, but 48,70-50 is a very strong resistance zone both on daily and on weekly chart.
- Ichimoku setup is back to neutral, but it will take more time until it can go strategic bullish, as we have a very thick Kumo ahead.
- Price got very quickly to very high above Kijun Sen, this normally is a warning signal itself.
- Heikin Ashi candles are super bullish, but haDelta printed an extreme high value, also today candle seem to have a lower high, so some form of consolidation or pull back has to happen.
However pls note that the longer term picture may improve a bit in coming weeks/months:
- On daily chart a weak bullish Tenkan/Kiun cross is about to happen
- weekly Heikin Ashi signal turned bullish
- weekly chart may have started to build a longer term bullish wedge. This doesn't mean Price can't check 40 or sub 40 levels once more, but we will have to watch this pattern development carefully!
Unless some "white swan" flies in and pulls price over 50, I think we saw a local top, and we will see some pull back towards 44 or maybe even 40. What will happen at those lower supp/res levels I have no idea. As usual, we have to see behavior when we get there.
Some asked me if I'd go short here. Well, my answer is that right now I do not see a very good risk/reward setup in any direction. I mean probably shorts have better possible payout from here than any new longs, but I could not participate in it in a relaxed way. I made money on this extreme short squeezed counter trend, so for me it is time to relax and watch only.
On Gold, USDJPY, DXY, SPX I still see more opportunity and better risk reward. We don't have to be and we can not be always in a position in all assets.
Anyway, if you are still in the bullish camp, it is time to close and take partial profit and/or trail up your stops
Reasons:
- Very impressive move from the lows, but 48,70-50 is a very strong resistance zone both on daily and on weekly chart.
- Ichimoku setup is back to neutral, but it will take more time until it can go strategic bullish, as we have a very thick Kumo ahead.
- Price got very quickly to very high above Kijun Sen, this normally is a warning signal itself.
- Heikin Ashi candles are super bullish, but haDelta printed an extreme high value, also today candle seem to have a lower high, so some form of consolidation or pull back has to happen.
However pls note that the longer term picture may improve a bit in coming weeks/months:
- On daily chart a weak bullish Tenkan/Kiun cross is about to happen
- weekly Heikin Ashi signal turned bullish
- weekly chart may have started to build a longer term bullish wedge. This doesn't mean Price can't check 40 or sub 40 levels once more, but we will have to watch this pattern development carefully!
Unless some "white swan" flies in and pulls price over 50, I think we saw a local top, and we will see some pull back towards 44 or maybe even 40. What will happen at those lower supp/res levels I have no idea. As usual, we have to see behavior when we get there.
Some asked me if I'd go short here. Well, my answer is that right now I do not see a very good risk/reward setup in any direction. I mean probably shorts have better possible payout from here than any new longs, but I could not participate in it in a relaxed way. I made money on this extreme short squeezed counter trend, so for me it is time to relax and watch only.
On Gold, USDJPY, DXY, SPX I still see more opportunity and better risk reward. We don't have to be and we can not be always in a position in all assets.