From the weekly chart, MACD is about to make a gold cross above zero very soon. A proper cross on weekly chart should yield at least $20 (from recent low of ~40 we should see ~60). I expect it to hit RSI70, consolidate (sideways: market will not let you buy cheap again) before heading to RSI80 level. This should bring us to the $70-80 region; which is another $20 from $60.
THIS IS A PROPER WEEKLY TREND HENCE RETRACE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO DAILY SCALE WHICH IS ~$10-12
yes weekly char. moving averages takes time and will not be affected too much by short term moves. by Jan 2017, the current descending averages will drop to current price ~45. This will be much easier to overcome than the current ~50 level. I hope that there will be an OPEC induced drop for me to buy lower. But I strongly believe 26 is the bottom and we will be very extremely lucky if the market decides to visit the low 30s again. For buying low, it does not mean buying blindly, one has to ensure that the smaller time frame conditions are ripe before going in. This will ensure that there is a higher chance of the move rippling over to the higher time frames.