Oil count is very, very difficult. All those bearish candles and rejections against MAs and resistance levels are bearish. The fact that oil did not follow SP500 in the recent is also bearish. Despite all of that the count, the look and feel of waves, bouncing off 200MA support on W speak in favour of a rally.
Also,
the price made a local double bottom with negative divergence against RSI
it declined in clear 3-3-3 pattern (labelled wxy on the right) and staged 5-3-5-3-5 rally thereafter
These two factors make me expect that the price will decline in the next few days to complete wave c and then BOOM some unexpected news will propel the price to 61/BBL to complete abc flat pattern.
Any Elliotticians here? Can wave b subdivide in wxy?
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Commodities have rolled over to the downside,
in a" potential "death spiral move down, to prior major support.
The fact that crude is acting so bearishly right now,
is a potential warning sign that must be heeded.