I say "possible" or "may happen", which doesn't mean it will happen 100 % sure. But there are some indications on 4H chart.
- Ichimoku picture is bearish, but on the recent selling wave price has not break below previous key low of 35,15. - Heikin-Ashi shows drop in bearish momentum: candle body shrinks, haDelta is slowly up. - EWO has likely reached its lowest level on 14/Dec, which means the bearish wave is weakening: positive divergence
If price can not make a lower low below 34,50, then we will see a quick spike to 38+.
Please note this is a continous CFD quote, which still reffers to January front contract. February/2016 contract trades appr. 140 points higher, around 36,70 when I write this post. In terms of Febr contract the possible retracement would be of course 39+
Comments
A-shot
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following this and red line still in tact. "surprisingly" :)
Kumowizard
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It can not be a higher low, but still small chance that it will be a double bottom, with no lower low. However we still don't have a proper Heikin-Asho ct buy signal.
tbuckle
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can you please let me know when/if you think it is a strong buy! Thank you!
Kumowizard
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Right now it would be a strong buy only above 38,50, if you mean 4H as trading time frame. Price has to break above 100WMA and Kumo cloud to reverse this strong downtrend. For now only a minor possibility that the local bottom may be close. But even if we'll have a bottom, that doesn't mean an immediate reversal. Maybe as AshYo writes above it will move "sideaway" in a 5 % range before it really turns bullish on the 4H time frame.
Kumowizard
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Also make sure you don't trade too big size in these swing trades which are against the major time frame trend and setup. I always use initial 0,5 risk adjusted trade unit, or when the two time frame strengthen each other then maximum 1 unit in case of counter trend swing trades.
Kumowizard
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pls also remember that due to front contract change this chart will automatically jump 140 points soon.
AshYo
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Does not seem to jump up... might go sideways?
tbuckle
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Translated into simple man's english does that mean we should look for a jump to 38 or 39. Excuse my ignorance please.