OIL - Time for a correction

TVC:USOIL   CFDs on WTI Crude Oil
3102 15 48
I updated oil             a week ago. Not too many things happened since then. As you could see oil             was not able to break above the previous intermediate cycle high (51.60$) . It seems we started a crawling along the 10 EMA . In most of the cases these kind of crawlings end up of breaking the 10 EMA and the 20 EMA is catching up the price before it starts to rally again. I don't think anything important going to happen next week in oil             .
I see 2 scenarios to evolve here.

1. Scenario A. (green)
Oil             will be in a range between the last intermediate high (51.60$) and the previous daily cycle high (49.13$) waiting for the 20 EMA to catch up the price. In this scenario oil             would follow the stock markets : in this case SM is waiting for the result of the US elections in a choppy range.

2. Scenario B (red)
Oil             is due to its half cycle low. We are around halfway of this daily cycle low. We had a strong rally at the beginning of this daily cycle : broke through at first try the last daily cycle top but the rally stopped at the last intermediate cycle high. As all the indicators are showing downwards I suspect that oil             will have a little bit more serious drawdown to the HCL             as most of the traders would think.
MACD is crossing over. RSI left overbought territory. SlowStochastic also turning down.
If we see this scenario price can easily come and tag the 50 EMA and maybe even the green trendline .

I'm not going to do anything in oil             right now. The energy stocks doesn't seem to be too strong.
The chance for a decline is quite high to go long right now but we are still early in the intermediate cycle to short oil             .

Comment: I'M waiting for today's close before posting the update here.
It's still not decided if it's a HCL decline starting or we are going to start a rally for 2 more weeks....
Now it's looking like a false breakout...
Comment: Though the close was nice yesterday today we have the same size red candle...
That's why I didn't want to jump the gun at the breakout.
The HCL is still ahead of us.
Comment: But this time I'm waiting for the "red scenario" . SO we are coming down to 47.5-48.
Trade closed: target reached
hi arpil... do you advise to short from here to a TP of 47.5 - 48 ???
Appreciated as always!
Loving this fall on Oil, Nice call Chart Watcher. perfect :)
Hi, I think now that the close of the candle for the day is completed. Is there an update you are providing?
appreciated as always.
i'm also waiting for the short but waiting for the breakout first.

It's bouncing off a strong weekly resistance line ;)
Did not seem to have the follow through today and Oil has been rally with the DXY for a few weeks now. Unless DXY starts to drop that would seem to keep a lid on Oil for now I think?
Hi, Many thanks for the analysis, now that we breached the target would you please provide and update?
+1 Reply
Appreciate updates on this chart.
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