Here, I have updated the fib lines and channels, oil is likely to drop from here through Q3 and Q4, and maybe bottom in December 2022. OPEC is likely to keep increase production. We may see it as wxyxz to bottom right below 70. Next wave up might be a truncated wave that may not exceed 130. Monthly and weekly RSI is overly bought.
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It is worth noting that 77-80 will definitely ring a bell in the waves here as the 3/8 fib line while the bottom is 4/8 fib line.
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And this is how well we have been doing with fib lines/channels and wave count in case you are curious about this chart.
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Trade active
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RSI DIVERGENCE
Trade active
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TP1 around 102-103 reached. There is possibility to see a retracement (scalping opportunity with managed risk) from here or wait for 102.XX and sell the top later around 113.XX with full pedal.
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Scalping long and short possible in counter trend movement from 102-113.XX. The short would be faster and long could drive will momentum. So buckle your belt
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Already at 104.5. Nice momentum upward
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Another chance to buy dip at 103.15 coming soon.
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We can scalp sell 106
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A lot of zig zag. And we may drop the third time to 104 again before shooting higher. Don't ignore RSI or Stochs.
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103.7 also possible to test before shooting higher
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We reached target and dropped fast to 109.1/2. This support may hold and send us back to 115.xx
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The support never held and the bounce is not extended at the lower support. This looks like a penant abc bearish and about to start dropping further from 111
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This drop is likely going to continue to 85/86 region. Later we may see 80 before any significant correction upward
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I see we have a divergence on daily and may go up one leg before going for 85/86 and 80 later
Agree! More oil output from OPEC and Russia still sell their oil too ... not to Europe, but to asien countries like India and China. Somebody must consume all that masses of oil!😉
rasaqdayo
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@salvanost, my forecast is based on probabilities of technical framework. I dont see the future and realities is beyond simplistic seasonality/fundamentals. Let us see how this may work out in this analysis: 1. Heating/electricity is mainly dominated by coal/gas sources. So I will agree if we are saying Nat Gas will be higher in winter. 2. Oil consumption is mainly dominated by transportation sector (especially road). Aviation may have some seasonality but it doesnt have the major influence. (a) Demand: Any lockdown of major economies caused by crisis such as war/disease outbreak (e.g covid) would significantly impact oil prices. (b) Supply: Increasing supply either by OPEC consensus/production quota disagreements will lead to oil prices plummeting. Another factor is US shale oil production may increase while Russian oil is still in market.
My take is that we could see partial 2(a) or 2(b) to satisfy the retracement in my technical framework before the price go on another skyrocketing that may not exceed 130.
salvanost
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no... fundamental won't happen this way... end of year = winter season = highest consumption of oil....
mentalKitten16330
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@salvanost, do you think highest consumption at the end of the year in winter season will exceed consumption amount before Covid? It was around $60 despite high usage of oil!!
salvanost
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@mentalKitten16330, Trump cut oil production during 2020 when oil drop really low... The reason why oil price rise until now