Crude oil is clearly in a downtrend for the next few years. Waves subdivide in corrective WXY patterns. Recent subdivisions were WXY as well which makes me expect oil at $44 by the end of summer. Will use BR futures and DTO ETF to short the commodity.
Further upward movement is also possible. Marked as an alternative in red on the right chart.
Rules Not more
than 10% exposure to the industry Not more t
han 1% of the risk on correlated ideas (this will include idea on USDRUB to be posted next)
Exit strategy - 50% at 76.4% - 30% at TP reached - 20% when PA points to a reversal
Trade closed: stop reached
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Closing the idea because I admit I do not have a clue what is going on with oil right now and have to wait for more clear signals.
The loss on FORTS is 0.29% of the portfolio. I still have to close DTO position. I did not put SL (sloppiness, so I will do it manually today). I can expect another 0.3% loss.
Also, the correlated USDRUB trade is still active and in the red.