The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has been restored, and the decline in the US dollar index has boosted oil prices.
In November, the core PPI of the US increased by 2.8% year-on-year (lower than the expected 3.0%), and the number of unemployment benefit claims exceeded expectations and increased by 12% month-on-month. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has risen from 68% to 85%, and the cumulative interest rate cut expectation for 2026 has been restored from 75BP to 90BP. The marginal warming of the expectation of loose liquidity has pushed the US dollar index to fall from 100.5 to 99.2, and the valuation of major commodities priced in US dollars, such as crude oil, has been supported - historical data shows that for every 1% decline in the US dollar index, the average crude oil price rises by 1.3%. The current decline in the US dollar has directly boosted oil prices.
Next week's crude oil trading strategy
buy：59.5-60
tp:60.5-601
sl:59
In November, the core PPI of the US increased by 2.8% year-on-year (lower than the expected 3.0%), and the number of unemployment benefit claims exceeded expectations and increased by 12% month-on-month. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has risen from 68% to 85%, and the cumulative interest rate cut expectation for 2026 has been restored from 75BP to 90BP. The marginal warming of the expectation of loose liquidity has pushed the US dollar index to fall from 100.5 to 99.2, and the valuation of major commodities priced in US dollars, such as crude oil, has been supported - historical data shows that for every 1% decline in the US dollar index, the average crude oil price rises by 1.3%. The current decline in the US dollar has directly boosted oil prices.
Next week's crude oil trading strategy
buy：59.5-60
tp:60.5-601
sl:59
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.