The Saudis tricked me out in Doha. I wasn't able to realize that we are in the purple channel. The 200 EMA is supporting very nicely our trend. After Doha we had the false breakout - the Saudi's beartrap- but the trend's direction was not really changed...
So now I think something really serious has to happen to break down here... Otherwise we should pop to 45$ and decide if we break out (1) or spend a few more hours in this smaller channel (2) If oil chooses the 2nd way it would produce a false breakout from the channel again and should very fast break back into the purple channel .
Otherwise nothing will stop it to rally to 48$... And we are running out of sellers again...
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I want to wait for today's close. I'll be watching where price is closing on the daily chart. We might be heading to the 20 EMA.
If we close below the 10 EMA we will tag the 20 EMA at 42.5$ or the 200 EMA at 42$. So all those who are overleveraged have to be prepaired to 1.5 $ from here. We are to early for printing a DCL so I don' think we are going to fall below 42$. I will post a daily chart tonight. But I will not close the oil positions - I was adding ERX today as I think the stocks are turning up again. And then oil stocks will follow the markets. Most probably oil too.
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So all those who are overleveraged have to be prepaired for 1.5 $ decline from here.
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dericksim
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monitoring from the daily chart, once price retrace and RSI14 hits the 50 level, time to monitor for a turn. (DO NOT enter when MACD is dead). once RSI touches 50 or below, wait for it to come up but do not jump into the trade. once MACD produces a gold cross above zero, enter long with the base of the previous candle as a stop loss. If MACD goes below zero, forget about the above setup.
dericksim
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if the current MACD crosses down on daily, the level to watch will be around 41-40 which is around the rsi14 (50)
Sure looks like you could be spot on this one too...
MMadryga
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API report inventory build of 1.3mln barrels, Cushing build of 382K barrels, Distillate draw of 2.6 mln barrels, Gasoline draw 1.2 mln barrels another mixed bag as draw takes away build should be favorable for upchannel trend.
chartwatchers
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Thanx Madryga. It seems we are closing back above the 10 EMA.
They are always doing this....
jackcrudeoil
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HI Chart....what's happening??i hope that its only a test back and the oil rally will continue as you told..what do you think??thanks a lot
val_trader
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Now we are at 43.5. Is it still valid the analysis ? Or are we going back to 40 ?
MMadryga
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We just tagged the weekly 4 MA so I am hoping that is the bottom.