Oil has just come off a 5 wave bull run. The weekly stochastics are pointing down suggesting a pullback in prices.
I do not have high conviction here as it's hard to tell if this is currently a corrective wave or wave 5 down. The price has just nicely bounced off the Wave W external retracement to swing back up. It's an expected short swing followed by a nice downward swing. It's this down that I'm going short on.
Those who intraday trade may want to get the swing back up.
I'm projecting around 62 a barrel. I don't have any conviction beyond that as it may be a big ABC correction at this stage.
Comment
⋅
I've taken another look at this chart and I'm seeing lots of nice fib symmetry here. I have put my targets in red. All the right fib levels are being hit and the fib charts I have overlaid seem to be describing what's happening nicely.
The XY wave int retracement and extension levels have described YA nicely as has the retracement on Wave WX.
I have marked two small targets as the possible new low with the bigger target where I'll exit parcel 2.
The trick is I need a retracement back upwards to give me confirmation and confidence of a big swing down. For me to enter, I want to see stochastics & MACD swinging down as things are a bit sideways at the moment.
Comment
⋅
Looks like Trump's ALL CAPS TWEETING at Iran is causing a spike in fears about Global Oil supply and delaying the move down compared with my predicted timeframe.
However, if things escalate, the bears could disappear and bulls come charging in.