"Let's play the GAME." - Victor.Y.F
play 0, above zero, a trial play for free. Lol...
play 1, stocks under zero.
play 2, under zero.
play 3, inflations under zero.
advanced play 4, the boss fighting DXY and EURUSD .
All traders comments and player's results are welcome here. I would like to show my game results if you guys show me the game results with comments. Thank you for your likes and ideas!
Saudi- Arabic: "The OPEC production cutting will be executed." Which is causing supply limitation for the price failure under sub zero. Saudi- Arabic: "predicting 1 million bucks growth in 2017." Which is causing a huge demand for the price failure under sub zero. When it's down to 49 a trend is confirmed.
The reasons could be in low volatile condition from market hedging trading. The volatility is too low to form a cooperation of price moving and indexes got benefits.
NZD will be weak from New Zealand GDP dropping. CAD will be weak from oil correlation. I suggest Buying OZ.
"When it's down to 49 a trend is confirmed." - Victor.Y.F ( 2 months ago)
The analysis of Lara.She's one of the most intelligent female I've ever seen. but this is her member's privilege. If you guys want to see early charts I suggest turning it into page 4.
This is NOT advertising and trading signal BTW.
From OPEC oil market monthly March report:
"World Oil Demand
The world oil demand growth estimate for 2016 was revised marginally higher by around 50 tb/d to now show growth of 1.38 mb/d to average 95.05 mb/d. Revisions were driven primarily by higher-than-anticipated 4Q16 oil demand in OECD Europe, and Asia Pacific, as well as China, partially offset by minor downward adjustments in the Middle East. For 2017, oil demand growth is anticipated to be around 1.26 mb/d, higher by 70 tb/d from previous month projections, to average 96.31 mb/d. The upward adjustments were due to more optimistic expectations for oil demand in OECD Europe, as well as Asia Pacific.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply growth is estimated to show a contraction of 0.66 mb/d in 2016, in line with the previous report, to average 57.34 mb/d. Higher 4Q16 growth in Canada and Other OECD Europe was offset by downward revisions in the US, Norway, Australia, Brunei and Azerbaijan. In 2017, non-OPEC oil supply is projected to grow by 0.40 mb/d, following an upward revision of 0.16 mb/d to average 57.74 mb/d. An improving outlook for Canadian oil sands and US supply were the main contributors to the revision. OPEC NGLs production in 2017 was revised down by 20 tb/d to now show growth of 0.13 mb/d. In February, OPEC production decreased by 0.14 mb/d, according to secondary sources, to average 31.96 mb/d."
Here's the game playing. Why the demand is exceeding the supply and the oil price shall crash? LOOK THE GAME RULES on the corrected comment chart 2 month ago.
The New Zealand GDP is worse than expected today and GDT price shall fall for the huge pull back, those factors won't support KIWI longing. ( as I predicted)
On the contrary OZ dollar raised credit loan interests today for suppress the house price in Australia. A very good point of view from investment is to buy OZ against KIWI and this's an hedge fund manager's favorite too.
http://news.sohu.com/20170318/n483738211... ( Chinese version)
Saudi-arabic sold 65 billion US dollar oil at the top of the price around 48.69 to China. Which is the stupid paid price again and again. The oil shall fall to 20 and will be under controled between 10 - 20 for many years. Stupidness bought it at the top.
I point out several SIMULATIONS here ( all ideas NOT for trading but for analysts)
1, The oil production cost is 10- 15 US dollar from Russia energy department. (7th. March 2017 information from Russia official news). China should buy oil from Russia but not from middle east. It's hard to control the risks from where Chinese cultrue influence is weak. The terrorist problem solutions are in the country but not from out side.
2, The oil deal is so huge that could ballance the THAAD situation in south Korea. China should have used the oil deal for gaining support from the Russia government's ban of the THAAD deploy. ( The THAAD is a long range detection radar can watch Russia far east land too) I can see this is a obviously strategy mistake where is saying there's no any clearly geopolitic strategy about North Korea nuclear situation. This could cause the North Korea WAR in the future. In this simulation, China is NOT ready and has NO plan for it. ( " the most important thing is NOT the prediction is right or wrong but the simulation and the emergency plan - Victor.Y.F. As traders "stop loss")
3, President Trump asked hill to process 1000 billion budget deficit which is the mostly is military investment. It's not like Mr.Ma from Alibaba's wrong assuming investment of transportations infrastructure ( It'll be delivered lately after the threaten is deleted.) This will support oil weakness.
I've noticed that CBRF ( Bank of Russia) cut rates 0.25% for the inflation target 4% (4.7% now). CBRF predict oil price will drop to 40 or lower soon. It's a better way to stable Rub before it drops and the most interesting thing is USDRUB drops after the cut. It was In 2014 CBRF raised Rub interests for protecting the Russia market and Rub, it's the right thing to do when the stocks market dropped and currency was weak.
I see an analyst which is talking about the history oil price rising. We see the same market and why I have different view with those overvalued analyst? It's called cognation disfunction. With long time wrongly educated and long time media disorder almost every one has the demand and supply illusion. Of cause in positive condition it shall rise but we're now negative. I try to explain it with mathematic later...
Only if the ECB points EUR to the oil price then it's a rising where we've formed the bounce off. The ECB's operators must have a lot of technical works to do in this upside down world. I send my sympathy to them... Lol
What's about EUR/USD? And those forex market EURO crosses?
What's about the inflation direction?
What's about the DAX? It's rising from buying or selling?
The Elliott wave is still working? From the dada continuity was sabotaged?
It's forming a capital consumption as a black hole of the investment?
Too many consequences there...
If US dollar is weak CAD is weaker, if US dollar is weaker JPY is the weakest in the forex market - Victor.Y.F
DO NOT catch the bottom traders, the very low inflation controlled situation could be lasting 24 months or more, waiting for A shares topping cycle completion.
For example, US oil diving target 12-16 and under controlled between 10-20 for 2 years. It looks like the oil market where are back to 1970's and before that.
Copper, bullish above 10 months SMA.
Natural Gas, bearish.
Oil, bullish above 10 months SMA, but turn to bearish for testing the SMA.
hike, core inflation, stocks, one by one. If they pull back, also they should be happening one by one.
The GO monthly ratio is showing a bottom at the trend line here. We've predicted a little pull back.
Please remember the oil price is very political, there’s no “free market” (many Chinese blindly think there is but the reality is against them) at all in this world.
This looks like President Trump has released the USA strategy oil reservation already.
This's saying that the gasoline companies didn't understand the culture revolution on the world that it will lead to the oil price down to 10-20 for long term point of view. consequently, the family using electric and the military using the oil should be the future separation.
Now the truth is against them, the European must change now. Let's see what's happening in this very key month.
FYI, the world energy revolutionary is just at the very beginning, this will change the electric energy into a cheapest way.
The oil price has some bizarre models. Think about this, for maintaining the same profits, at 90 dollar oil production countries will supply less and at 20 dollar they will supply more. This model is saying that the oil price has a collapse price and has a dead zone. So after the collapse if price drops into the dead zone, the production will be limitless, for very oil output countries trying to maintain the same profits as before.
Consequently, if that happens, oil price will stay in the dead zone between 10-20 for many years just like 1970s. This price model even doesn't count the energy revolution in the cheapest electric cars.
The energy revolution should've happened in 2000 where little Bush was the president, but the 911 broke it.
Now President Trump looks like taking over Bush's action now.
The most important thing is that the US dollar hike has made inflation higher and Chinese are getting poor and poor by no hike to be against it. ( the very source of nationalist and populist) So the poverty has been spread into France already, where you guys can see it. China has forced drivers to using alcohol gasoline already, thing about it.
This has talked too much of the future, we don't want to draw any attention from CIA and MI6. We're independent analysts and we don't work for the government.
Meanwhile, President Trump wants to meet Xi and Putin for talking about military fee, in case of leaking, that they will talk about the energy revolution which will make a better world to let the peace last longer.
Please read our analysis, especially Chinese scalpers, you don't know what you're doing.
The common sense is this:
"Asset holder like this huge company must short the price using future market and using leverage." Victor.Y.F