I have been watching the slow up move for about 2 weeks (was long OIL two weeks before). Major players are still on the selling side, even rumor of closing Hormuz Strait does not help the bull too much. Once the monthly candle closes, find an entry to short. Ideal entry will be in the range between 70.90-71.20, stop loss above 0.618 retracement, target 1.272 around 200 daily SMA, 64.80. The current chart pattern is very similar as mid of June, the winning ratio is not bad. But keep in mind that the long term trend is still BULLISH without question, so take profit accordingly.
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XOP is also very weak, breaking the trend and forming a flag for almost two weeks.
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Looks like it is going down, 1 day earlier than expected. Don't chase the price, this trade is countering long term trend. If no good opportunity, wait for long.
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Not sure if we are breaking down today. Bear might not be very strong since today is the monthly candle close. If it didn't breakdown, take profit, try find another entry later.
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The bottom is still in question. Last time we get some buyer accumulation before price shoot up, this time we probably don't have it. Be careful for the long, watch price action around 71 next week.
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I think it's a bull trap. Short the breakdown!
Trade closed manually:
Tomorrow is the key day, either crash down or get ready to go up. I am currently incline to the second option. I ll cover my short tomorrow morning, looking for long entry between 67.6 to 67.8.