The surge in oil price was so strong that it makes me to reconsider the immediate bearish count. Shorter-term chart turned very bullish. I suspect a strong impulse wave in the making. If lucky there will be a significant (though not necessarily) pullback in miniscule wave 2, which may allow close long positions. It might me that this pullback will look like reversal and many bears will be tempted to stay put. I might attempt to close my shorts and open longs on this pullback.
I’m in the same boat, waiting for a small retracement to close my shorts. However, for the next 2 to 3 months I entertain a bullish bias, because all the charts below held the critical levels last week: raoulpal.substack.com/p/make-or-break-the-gmi-top-5-weekly?_hsenc=p2ANqtz--iAKjBtxMNYMc9IIKrDRfUTHP0JyXrHdnTDHvjl0ZGgFhS5BVs9WO52r7lfEP98GIADcPFezpyjsht0A9uWwmymoYZzg . I believe we will rally from here, not so much oil, but precious & base metals and equities/crypto. I am not expecting a crash in commodities or spx before June. And yeah, i am pissed that I’ve missed the inflection point last week - i was expecting another leg down. I appreciate your work and i think your analysis is on the point directionally, but i also notice you tend to call tops/reversals too early - something that i suffer from as well. I hope we will have a better week ahead! :-)
Fomenka
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@Hatya0441, thanks. I actually think that metals will go sideways while SPX500 is rallying with oil before reversing in March-April. Yeah, the most intense part (3rd of 3rd may come in June actually). Oil has been a pain with this sideways movement. The analysis does not look strong - but I do not have a better alternative at the moment