chessnut

Oil to take a hike - EW

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
65 0 1
Oil             has declined more than 50% in just a few months. A terribly steep decline. Sentiment has turned, with analysts finally embracing the bear, forecasts of sub $40, even down to $20 are not uncommon. This is therefore a time to look for at least a short term bottom.

While these targets are possible given time, the chart is begging for a reaction with RSI severely oversold, and plenty of space to move upwards.

Russia is playing games with NATO, cutting of gas to Europe, creating shortages of energy. This is a fundamental motive.

What we have here that tells us it is time to go long is a clearly defined impulsive wave forming from lows. This EW pattern combined with bearish sentiment and bullish fundamentals is an easy buy signal, stop-loss under lows.


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