OIL - Key reversal and a follow through
After Wednesday's key reversal oil tried to bounce on Thursday with no success.
Price closed near to the lows. Today we have a lower low again.
The minimum retracement we must have now is the 10 EMA at 52.1$.
That level is the FIBO 23.6% level also so today or tomorrow the 10 EMA will catch up price.
As I mentioned in the previous idea without the clear panic selling it will be hard to print a new high in the first daily cycle whatever powers are doing with oil.
So when the decline continues the next level is at the 50 and 20 EMA ( they are at 51.2$ right now). 51.2 $ is the FIBO 38.2 % retracement. Notice how important was the 50 EMA at the consolidation. We never tested back that level, a back test is necessary .
And I still see a possibility for price to tag the 200 SMA again to shake out the bulls who bought oil last week.
Price closed near to the lows. Today we have a lower low again.
The minimum retracement we must have now is the 10 EMA at 52.1$.
That level is the FIBO 23.6% level also so today or tomorrow the 10 EMA will catch up price.
As I mentioned in the previous idea without the clear panic selling it will be hard to print a new high in the first daily cycle whatever powers are doing with oil.
So when the decline continues the next level is at the 50 and 20 EMA ( they are at 51.2$ right now). 51.2 $ is the FIBO 38.2 % retracement. Notice how important was the 50 EMA at the consolidation. We never tested back that level, a back test is necessary .
And I still see a possibility for price to tag the 200 SMA again to shake out the bulls who bought oil last week.
Comment:
As I'M watching the bigger picture there is a decent chance that we are in the 4th daily cycle and it might be a failed daily cycle. If that is the case we might break below 47$. This week will be important if it happens it will be a very fast move in 5-6 days. We have to see how it plays out this week.
Comment:
Getting close to the 20 and 50 EMA.
Comment:
Yesterday we lost the 10 SMA. Today we tried to regain it , but failed.
Notice how last year October we lost the 10 SMA on the daily chart.
I say the decline will continue minimum 2 days from now...
Notice how last year October we lost the 10 SMA on the daily chart.
I say the decline will continue minimum 2 days from now...
Comment:
While I posted we tagged the 20 EMA.
Level 1,5 is completed.
I think tomorrow we will break below the 50 EMA. That will be a strong resistance.
I will suggest to take some profit there if your position is big.
Level 1,5 is completed.
I think tomorrow we will break below the 50 EMA. That will be a strong resistance.
I will suggest to take some profit there if your position is big.
Comment:
50 EMA tagged.
50 EMA broken.
Level 2 completed.
50 EMA broken.
Level 2 completed.
Comment:
More than 4% drop ...
RSI at oversold.
Taking profit on half of the position.
RSI at oversold.
Taking profit on half of the position.
Comment:
I might not be able to post before market close.
I'm buying ERX today...
Buying in the selling panic.. Just 5-10% margin impact.
I'm buying ERX today...
Buying in the selling panic.. Just 5-10% margin impact.
Comment:
Getting close to the 200 SMA on the daily.
Taking profit on 25% of the original position at 49.33$.
25% of the original position left. I'm going to close it
between 48.5$ and 49$.
Taking profit on 25% of the original position at 49.33$.
25% of the original position left. I'm going to close it
between 48.5$ and 49$.
Trade closed manually:
I'M closing the last 25% at 49.57$.
Comment:
ERX and XLE is turning up. We almost tagged the 200 SMA today in oil, if price bouncing the 200 SMA will catch up price....
We saw how they stopped the panic selling 2 weeks ago. They will stop the further decline again. If not here than at 48 or 47 $ the latest.
There is still a chance that oil goes lower but the risk is too high.
We had a 4% and a 2% down day in a row... I'm moving the capital into ERX and XLE.
We saw how they stopped the panic selling 2 weeks ago. They will stop the further decline again. If not here than at 48 or 47 $ the latest.
There is still a chance that oil goes lower but the risk is too high.
We had a 4% and a 2% down day in a row... I'm moving the capital into ERX and XLE.
First level completed. Watching RSI 7 to get oversold.