All short limits should have filled to a short holding of 1.2 standard contract - averaging $37.325 Position dynamics explained on chart. I will be implementing the Risk Assimilation matrix outlined on the chart (Black box). This is a money management technique used to securing a position without the use of stop losses.
Currently place limit sells at 10k @ $38.20 10k @ $38.30 10k @ $38.40
Place limit TPs @ $37.00 for 30k of short holdings, ONLY If ABOVE LIMIT SHORT ENTRIES ARE FILLED.
I will strictly adhere to the following Risk Management requisite:- Over all position Risk on a $10,000 account will be held between (-12%to -15%). reward from ($37.5 entry --> $32.5 target) around +50% on a 10,000 account.
Take Care & Stay Safe
Comment
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<38.20-38.40> fill. Position average = $37.52 for 1.5 standard contract. place TP on 30k @ $37.30
Take Care & Stay Safe
Comment
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Close 30k at market <$37.40> = $90*3 = $270 in profit Position average $37.52 for 1.2 standard contract
Take care & Stay Safe
Comment
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Correction :- that was $10 x 3 = $30 in profit - Not $270 Sorry for the miss calculation. Position average however has been raised to $37.52 and reduced to 1.2 standard lots Take Care & Stay Safe
Comment
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Holding a 1.2 standard contract size shorts @ 37.52 average Add limit short orders as follows:- 10k short @39.10 10k short @ 39.20 10k short @ 39.30
If Above are filled place TP for 30k at $37.80 contract size becomes 1.5 standard contract shorts @ 37.856 average In this manner we should be raising the short position average again to assimilate risk
Take care & Stay safe
Trade active
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Holding 1 standard contract short averaging $37.826 Add Short Limits as follows 10k@ 39.90 10k@ 39.80 10k@ 39.70 10k@ 39.60
If filled position average becomes $38.37 for 1.4 standard contract- Risk at $40 is -23% (-$2300). Risk @ 440.50 = -30% (-$2982) Target same @ $32.50
Take care & stay safe.
Trade active
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<$39.60-$39.80> filled, to a contract size = 1.3 averaging $38.25 Remove 10k short entry @ $39.90 Risk assessment remains as outlined above. Target remains @ $32.50
Correction:- "440.50" above should read "40.50" Sorry for the Typo Take care & Stay Safe
Trade active
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The position has reached risk @ $40.50 = -30% for 1.3 contract size on a $10,000 account. So I will work to assimilate1/3 the risk.
Place Tp for short holdings $39.60-$39.70-$39.80 @ $39.20 Place Tp for 1 x 10k short acquired at $37.826 also at $39.20
$39.20 is y'day's low, and the lower 1HR BB.
If filled contract size gets reduced to 0.9 at 37.826 average. Risk @ $40 becomes -$1962 = ~20% on 10,000 account
Targets for 0.9 contract remains the same @ $32.50
Take Care & Stay Safe.
Trade active
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There is a Bear Motive on the 1HR chart now doing a wave-3 Remove TPs @ $39.20 Holding 1.3 contract shorts averaging $37.826 targeting $32.50 Add Short limits @ 10k @ $40.10 10k @ $39.90 All to same target $32.50
Take care & Stay Safe
Trade active
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10k @ $39.90 filled to an overall average $37.97 for 1.4 contract size. take the 10k @ $40.10 limit short down to $39.25 TP for all remains @ $32.50
Such a real excellent work! I like this! I think you're a professional in risk management. But I didn't understand something. Is the entry area of selling between 37.9$ - 39.9$? or we should short once it reached the neckline?
Summerset
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@Amro_Elzeiny,
The entry area for selling theoretically is between 37.90-->39.95. But in reality, due volatility, we can easily see $40-41 (double top formation). Therefore, because we know this to be a prospective selling zone, we stick with the fundamental direction & momentum readings (down). And the entry area becomes dynamic in accordance with hourly BB fluctuations on a daily basis. By selling the Bollinger high, and liquidating at the Bollinger MA consistently for say (20-25%) of the position during market rises. One can be assured that the position average "sell" value consistently & is gradually raised with the market IF it continues to rise. Draw down becomes fixed, and a little money on the side is made during waiting time.
Practically then the sell zone entry gradually shifts from <37.3> --> <37.5> --> <37.8> ---> <38.10> (moving between the 37.90-->39.95) window & so on.
Its practicality will clarify during application, as you follow this entry / idea.