Oil is going to make a major move very soon, however, it is extremely challenging to place a probability based on technicals right now - too much contradiction in possibilities. At this point, a close above $55 or below $50 is the green light for direction.
I think it won't fall that far ( short-term ), crude oil is now being squezed in a bullish triangle. A drop below that could become absolutely bearish, and a rise above it again bullish. I can also see that the pattern is being repeated.