IF, and it's a BIG IF, this pattern plays out as the flat I've laid out, to the 4th wave of one lesser degree, the sell point should be around 101.50/80. That puts it in the middle of lots and lots of technical possibilities. Should we get 3 waves in B I'll be looking to buy for the trip into the .50% retracement area. BUT, the big reason for this trade is selling the 5 waves of C for what could be a 3-3-5 flat wave correction of the 5 larger waves down. Should this transpire target 1 is the end of wave 5 and target 2 is support on the 4 hr chart Hopefully stops will become more precise as price completes the pattern and the candlesticks may shed some light as well.
Comments
failathon
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I like the idea, but maybe only if we can stay under 103...
dojitrader
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Yes, the more I look at this, especially from a Daily chart the more - bullish - I get.
I'll continue to stand aside and approach this from a more conservative approach
and look for some sort of bearish confirmation from the candlesticks or broken
structure/trend lines,double top w/RSI divergence. Above 103 is probably a good sign of more upside.
However, if my premise of a wave 2 counter trend rally is correct, then, I'm not
correct in saying that above 103.11 makes this invalid but, a price above 104.96.
(more than 100% retrace)
I'm waiting and watching for now ~~~~~~
thanks for your thoughts and charts !!!
dojitrader
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Anticipated price action wasn't even close, but, we're now at
the point of action. I'm counting this potential C wave as extended
and looking for one more high, perhaps at the .618 fib. This corrective
idea is not invalid until we trade above 103.11 so I'm waiting for some
sort of clarity - perhaps from the hourly candlesticks.- for a more
confident entry.
traderWgun
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Good count. As you mentioned, flats are hard to anticipate,
and the current structure is very sloppy.
I agree with you about selling a flat,
but if we don't get a flat, the smart thing to do is
to sell a correction after 5 waves down against the most recent high.
Sure, the stops would be wide, but it's better to get a smaller profit
than getting stopped out when one is on the right side.
Good luck! ;)
dojitrader
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Thanks for the thumbs up !
Stops are a bit of a moving target on this idea, so,
If I understand what you're saying ~~~~~
Perhaps the short should be placed closer to the .382 fib
which is also the high of wave A ??
OR hope that price reaches the 1.272 fib ext ??
Thanks for your thoughts !!!
traderWgun
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Well, the thing with EW is that when there is too little data,
there is too many possibilities. And IMO that is the case
in this pair.
If we assume that the correction ended at 101,
then we should look for a 5 waves down and then a correction before selling
That the smart thing to do IMO, because this correction can take many shapes.
A 5 waves decline (impulsive or in the shape of an leading diagonal) would
signal that the correction is over.
If it turns out to be a flat, I would without any doubt sell it near 101.
It could also be a complex correction, so I'm going to wait for a 5 waves decline.
dojitrader
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Yes, I may have missed the short if my A is already done as a short
and sweet a-b-c. Thus my focus on B may help tell the tale.
Your idea is the next opportunity should 5 be taken out and I'll be
looking for that possibility.
Thanks for your thoughtful reply and charts. >>>><<<<
AND, by the way, I happen to look at your demo account today
WOW ! You're just knockn'em dead this year ----
How' bout that month of April when everybody else seemed
to be struggling *******
Congratulations . . . Wishing you continued success ^^^^^^^^^^^^
traderWgun
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thx you. I have been on a roll, let's hope it continues. :)