I have been long term Bearish on oil expecting a few rallys up on the way down. Here is my long term projection for oil, anticipating $25 a barrel. We landed on the 38% retracement here last year as a response to the decline down from 2009. I think that rally to the .38 was the last for bit.
Trade active
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Looking like we are headed down and over the next month it could be ugly.
dude u r proejcting way long term outlook. Logically it seems right but practically it doesnt happen. I need 72 in 2 months and i am out.
ChartProphet
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@LetsBeMillionaire, Let me extrapolate a bit more and explain a bit that I left out. I think the coronavirus is under reported by Chinese and I believe the media owners will manipulate the news cycle to pump assets as the uber rich liquidate positions and ready themselves for the next depression.
Oil is going to get hammered.
ChartProphet
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@lightloupes, This is the extreme version of what could happen, but I think statistically its more likely than some would admit.
LetsBeMillionaire
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@lightloupes, agree but they need to spike it a bit more so all biggies can get out. with all EVs coming, oil is sure going to your target in 3-5 years. Short term all hedgefunds needs to create lots of bag holders. it will happen at 65-70+. ARAMCO needs oil above 60 for some more time
ChartProphet
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@LetsBeMillionaire, You could certainly be correct and I do have a narrow lens at the moment. The rumor is that all the really rich oil money has been transferring over to the electrification platform for sometime. Leaving only the stupid oil money to short Tesla constantly. The Tesla shorts stack up and pile on in unusal patterns from what I have heard, not sure if that's a foot print of stupid money?
It will be interesting to see what happens and I will analyze your opinion as this plays out as to know when to change my own if I need to.
LetsBeMillionaire
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@lightloupes, Ssee my analysis here. Just published.