This has still BIG chance to be a BULL trap, but thanks to FED we have unlimited money and potential HIGHEST RECORD GROWTH in OIL.
BIG MONEY WILL ENTER OIL + 150 000 of Shorts will be squeezed Enter from CURRENT LEVELS AGRESSIVELY, and put the STOPS to 44.5 level
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standing at the last border. +1$ profit already, 22$ to go.
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+ End of the week, end of the MONTH is very very bullish. + Multiple bullish signals from TA on the chart (they usually not work, but everybody SEES them, and thats important) + And shorters are not dead yet. No screams like "we are heading to 100$ per barrel from Gartman and so on."
One small "bullish" event like "Hurricane in th Gulf" or "Bad news from Nigeria/Lybia" and there will be: 1. spike up for +$1. 2. major closing of the shorts, that are still there. 3. Big Money entrance to mid-term longs.
that fuel could bring us 5-7 days of going up.
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Here is our +1$ move. Shorters are now like: 0_0 Waiting for reaction.
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Looking strong even against the DXY.
Trade closed manually
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closed the oil long for a retrace. $2 profit.
Thinking of shorting 49.1, 49.45, 49.9 to the 47.2, 46.7 and get back to long from there.
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It might sound crazy now, but 49.45 short is opened now ;) SL 50.1
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49.9 loaded. tight SL at 50.1
fingers crossed.
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Got stopped out in oil.
Trade active
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reentered short at 50.1-50. lets see..
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possible movement:
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just check this to images (what happened in august)
Trade active
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Oil is strong.
headed back to 49.9-50.1 zone. seems to be reversing here.
We should probably go long from here or from 49.5 zone. time from bullish API, bullish EIA fro 2 weeks in a row.
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added long at 49.5. stop at 49.5, target for today 51.1
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The correction that i wrote about - has ended. It was't so much that i showed, but it shows the STRENGTH of an oil.
Going over 50.4 - switches us to the LONG side again.
So what I expect to see now: 15 Oct - going to 51.2 and staying there. 17 Oct, we have to show the higher high. expiration of the WTI (usually making the peak). 52+ 18 Oct, correction to fill the contracts change. the red candle. 19 Oct- EIA data. Hurricane affected. So has to be bullish. 20-26 Oct - steady growth on the stopping shorters who doesn't believe the long. 27-28 OPEC meeting in Vienna - PEAK to EXIT the longs.
November-December is probably the time to fall. But lets trade the October first.
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closer look on the movement idea
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1. First of all, i was wrong. Correction wasn't over. 2. We did hit 49.5 once again. 3. We tried to pull back twice in past days, but we couldnt make it lower. 4. API data released bullish
I think EIA will show the same and bears will loose the faith. Today we will see the higher high 51.75 at least.
and there is one OBVIOUS thing that noone understands now, but will realize when we visit the 51.6. THERE ARE NO RESISTANCE ABOVE the 51.6. PANIC BUY AND SHORTSQUEEZE for all the poor bears.
if you are not in long you have the chance to hop on in 50.5-50.6 range by putting limit there.
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oil is sticking to the plan. Thank you oil ;)
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and one more point... everyone will suddenly realize that there is inverse H&S on WEEKLY chart. triggered by closing above 51.5+ ... oooops.
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Trade closed manually
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as told: 27-28 OPEC meeting in Vienna - PEAK to EXIT the longs. November-December is probably the time to fall.
I was trapped in games of my mind, and instead of shorting, i waited the price to climb higher, even though i knew that it was time to fall.
Newbie ;)
Comments
IvanLabrie
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There you go. (I added near the close)
IvanLabrie
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I agree with the last asessment, I'm back in the long, fundamentals kicking in, at least regarding the hyped up API and EIA data (although we both know in the real world it shouldn't matter)
Great trading mate, cheers.
IvanLabrie
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I think your scenario will pan out if we break above today's high.
Reverse head and shoulders do not always work for me, they tend to take longer as a reversal signal, but I am positioned for this exact scenario. Great to see another with similar conclusion.
xiiimik
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Where did you get that numbers? Thanks.
timwest
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Great chart with sentiment labeled on the chart! Love it.
There you go. (I added near the close)