Inflation swaps may be pricing in lower inflation, but swaps don't understand structural inflation. Are swap prices truly efficient?
It's all about energy. That means oil, until some version of nuclear becomes significantly scalable to harvest commodities, will continue to drag inflation back to the party.
Oil will party like it's 1973 and inflation will rear it's ugly head once more, even though everyone thought it was dead.
Stocks will likely head lower, but oil will be crowned king 2024-2025 and will make inflation it's queen.