There is a series of negative news for crude oil. Crude oil is currently around 77.6. After the decision to extend voluntary production cuts into the second quarter was announced, oil was sold off, indicating underlying weak demand. What is even more worrying is that Russia agreed to voluntarily cut production last year, and then voluntarily cut production by 471,000 barrels per day in the second quarter, extending it to the end of 2024. In April this year, Russia announced that it would cut production by 350,000 barrels per day and exports by 121,000 barrels per day, but the total reduction in June was 471,000 barrels per day, mainly targeting oil production. Crude oil is currently back within the shock range.
As shown in the figure, the current strategy can be based on selling high and buying low within the range of 78.3-76.
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