InvestingScope

Oil: Sideways for the next 3 years?

FX:USOIL   CFDs on Crude Oil (WTI)
The recent sharp decline on oil prices has got many investors thinking if this was a long term sell signal or a pull back on the monthly chart before another long term rally.

If we compare Oil's trading behavior since its January 2009 bottom with the candle pattern since the February 2016 bottom, we see at first glance a lot of similarities between the two sequences. One that stands out is that on the 2009 cycle, the decline from top ($147) to bottom ($33) was nearly 78%. The respective decline on the 2016 cycle was 76%.

Assuming the candle sequence will continue to reproduce similar candle patterns, we can estimate a strong 3 year consolidation (November 2016 - December 2021) roughly within $50 and $73. This indicates a good buy/ sell pattern on a long term Rectangle for investors who have patience. Buy near $50 - $53 and sell near $70 - $73.

Needless to say, this projection is a huge speculative scenario based only on historic volatility ignoring the strong fundamentals (OPEC, geopolitics) affecting the Oil prices, that we simply can't know or predict.




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