Very boring day in crude. Into the NYMEX close, 40.60 held three times, on the downside. An unexpected headline draw from API - despite, a 1.5mm build at Cushing, led a moderate bounce higher after-hours. The pre-NYMEX close high has kept a lid on the move ~41.12. Yesterday's fake reversal, which felt comparatively weak versus other oversold spikes higher, coupled with today's general weakness isn't constructive for a counter-trend rally. Supply concerns are/will ultimately trump Syrian/terrorism concerns, which initially spurred this fake rally.
We need a close below 40.00 to confirm a move lower, instead of simple consolidation.
Ultimately, I still see a full 100% retracement, back to August's lows. 16 year-old support levels break hard.