This is my general expectation for crude based off EW.
The red box is an area of strong resistance at around $66 - 63. The blue box is where I hope to close out my short.
Yes, I am aware that there are a low of factors in the background that could change this view in a hurry.
- Bear in mind that last two weeks ago news was saying that stockpiles in the US were at all time highs, with supply high.
- 1 week ago, that US stockpiles had reduced by record amounts amid middle east tensions,
- later in the week, USD70 a barrel was expected in 2019,
- and then just before the markets closed on Friday; crude supply strong and stockpiles rebounded and the price dropped dramatically.
The middle east situation is potentially very serious; either there is a state of proxy state actor up to no good (I don't necessarily think it is who we are told it is). But things seem to have calmed down a bit lately. I just traded the chart as I saw it, not as we were told to see it. Consider who is feeding the media with the news and why. It is never to help you.
Personally, I would find it very difficult to have watched the dramatically steep price declines between Oct and xmas 2018 and to then, a few months later, think that the is materially different given global expectations of slowing global growth, manufacturing output, vehicle sales etc to enable a 180 switch from strongly to .
Dammit, this was supposed to be a quick post. Anyway, that is my view, let;s see how it turns out. The two red dashed lines are my short orders. See me stopped out for break even, or close out below $35.