Haven't updated oil for a while. I suggested an entry at this idea: Time to update again, because we're printing a coil for a week now. We are at a tricky level . 2 resistance and one time problem at this point: 1.This year's downtrend line (dotted red) 2. 200 SMA (light blue) 3. Getting late in the daily cycle.
I will set this idea as neutral. I don't suggest long entry here though I'm not sure we are not breaking out of the coil and rallying higher in the following days... That's the reason I don't suggest to exit your longs from the lows because we might break out any day. I see 2 possible scenarios: 1. We are breaking the coil in the following 2-3 days and printing a cycle top. The breakout can be even a 3-4$ breakout... When the daily cycle topped we will drop into the DCL and tag the 200 SMA with RSI oversold. That's the point where I would enter with a long position. If this case happens I will try to pick the top of the daily cycle and re-enter at the 200 SMA. MACD supports this idea . Though RSI is overbought for days and MACD is crossing over now MACD is still far from extreme levels... So this easily can turn out to be a kiss and a tag at the MACD... 2. The daily cycle tops here at the trendline and at the 200 SMA and we drop into the DCL in the next 2 weeks without new highs. In this scenario the DCL could be at the 50 EMA ... I'm not going to play this scenario just bear the drop into the DCL and skip the troll's messages : "You missed it again." :D We will get the answer in the next 2 weeks...
If you are overleveraged and have nice profits ( long from the trendline break at 43$) you can take profits here on half of the position and re-enter into full position at the DCL at the 200SMA.
( Some of the text can't be seen on the indicators so scroll down the MACD and the RSI)
Comment
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RSI is still not ready yet. I think this week we will get the bottom. As yesterday's drop was too steep we tagged the 50 EMA so price seems want to tag the 50 MA .
If this breaks up, it will be violent as allll these SL's get triggered. Everyone is bearish right now
cigir
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@TexasTower85, Is this chart represent real sl in the market ? If yes, how are you doing ??
MMadryga
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WTI $55 to $57 a barrel by mid September if draws hold 69M barrel draws so far this year WSJ. Some shale plays to look at LPI PE RSPP more risky more reward WLL OAS
MMadryga
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Here we go... hope all are in...
MMadryga
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Here are some interesting facts; as of Wednesday's report, we've eliminated the entire 24M barrels of crude that built up in 2016. It's the largest single week draw since 2014, and places total crude in storage (both commercial stocks and the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve) at where they stood in October 2015. Crude inventories (excluding SPR) currently stand about 57M barrels above the 5 year average. Interestingly, over the last 8 years distillates have typically added 7.5M barrels of crude to storage in the June to Mid -August time frame, this year we are looking at a an overall build of only 700K which means distillate demand is one of the driving forces behind the draws. As manufacturing in the US picks up distillates are consumed, this is usually an indicator that would impact GOLD negatively thus explaining some of the retracement we have seen in GOLD as of late. Hope this helps.
MMadryga
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API shows 9.s million barrel draw in US crude supplies, EIA will most likely confirm, then we will have a short squeeze. Shale players oversold as well.
dp
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Does anyone has the graph of sentiment index?
AshYo
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Hi ARPI,
Any updates on the above target that is reached?
chartwatchers
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@AshYo, 2-3days and we are ready. waiting at this point