AaronLeggett

WTI Crude, XABCD Pattern almost formed - Long at $45-$46

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
Long term idea from analysis here - could take a while to complete. Or not - we all know how ridiculous oil             is!

Anyway, as you can see, there is a very, very strong long-term support trendline forming way back from 1999. It's apparent that oil             rose in the late 2000s due to a booming economy and increased demand and subsequently a dramatic drop due to global recession. However, even though this was a fundamental movement, it still bounced off the long-term trendline ; thus suggesting that history might repeat itself as usual. The Fibonacci levels haven't fulfilled greatly but they've aided in the prediction of the D wave - which is around $76 ($75 for psychological reasons?)

The 0.236 line is the first call of resistance where it sits just under the psychological $60 mark.

The RSI is indicating a divergence since the last major crash - once again adding fuel to the fire for a comeback.

More economies are developing and faster than ever - add this into the equation with western economies recovering from the recession and you have a mixture for a massive amount of demand - especially as oil             will be the fuel of choice at this lucrative price.

Oil             will continue to be produced at maximum output until OPEC decide to cut it. However, businesses may try and profit; they'll act on the fact that people will consume the same amount of fuel commuting etc. and spend more elsewhere - thus they'll take advantage of the additional capital people have and employ marketing tactics, new products and potentially slightly higher prices. This in turn, will fuel the economy and pump more money into nations; thus once again, increasing the demand for oil             .

We're heading into an interesting period - oil             could sky rocket at $45/$46 or it could continue to fall to unprecedented levels such as $33, $17 and even $10 - although I highly doubt it'll ever get to the latter, but potentially $33 if it continues the rally.

To conclude, the long-term trend line has proven itself to be effective in a fundamental position before and it's about time that oil             rallies back up otherwise it could cause global economic crisis - and they wouldn't want that would they?

Just be vigilate trading this commodity - if you're going to long I suggest you sacrifice some profit and wait until it's bounced at $45/$46 and rose above $50. After that - aim for the completion of the D wave at $75/$76 and just watch out for those all important psychological levels which end in 0's and 5's.
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