Planning to trade according to the SR levels shown in this chart. They drove prices way too high in the worst moment and they are killing demand, therefore I think a correction is highly needed to attract new contract longs.
If you look at the options volume and heat map you will notice that by march-may 2022 there will be a bottom in price, coinciding with the softening of OPEC+ output.
I expect price to behave more or less like this and then will re-evaluate from there, probably new longs to new highs around 80 to 90 USD but it all depends on the healthy of the global economy and its recovery from the covid pandemics.
I think $52.43 is much less likely than $80.09, likewise with $58.75. Regardless of technical indicators (or the overblown COVID-19 stuff, maybe China will put out more photos of welding people into houses to spread some fear) ... the primary factor here is geopolitics, the weak US president, and increased instability in nearly every region in the world.
Naturally this instability will involve major oil producing countries, and instability is good for the military industrial complex, which is also good for oil. I took some massively outsized positions in energy ETFs and some of the major players (Exxon, Chevron) directly after the US election.
ed: it seems some news out in the last hour or two is that Germany has even sent a warship to the South China Sea. when was the last time that happened? naturally these ships don't run on solar or wind turbines
VIP_Trading_Technologies
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@Jacques_de_Molay Hi mate, thanks for your input. Very valid points. Im holding ETFs with 2x and 3x leverage on inverse oil perf. Didnt know about germany vessel. Will find out more. Cheers.
Jacques_de_Molay
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@VIP_Trading_Technologies, There was also the coup in Tunisia (so much for Obama's legacy and the "Arab Spring"). Tunisia is a non-factor in oil production, but it is just another small bit in the clash of civilizations which is likely to happen sooner rather than later, w/ a demented US president and his rainbow coalition cabinet, where a majority lack any sort of merit whatsoever.
Another recent blunder was sending Wendy Sherman to China. "US shall learn how to respect other nations, if US can not, China shall give US a lesson on how to learn respecting other nations." Check the briefs from both parties, they couldn't be more different (except both refer essentially to 'firm and direct' conversations, which in diplo-speak is not such a great thing).
VIP_Trading_Technologies
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@Jacques_de_Molay Wow, thanks for these news. I was aware of Tunis but will check on Wendy Sherman. Appreciated.
Jacques_de_Molay
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@Jacques_de_Molay, consider myself flabbergasted. i guess the 'delta variant' fear outweighs some common sense. i mean, you can look gibraltar vaccination stats up, see the cases, but there are no deaths. these stats are similar throughout,
though i stand by long term comments
but you seem right for short term (at least partially, i would not have thought it would have broken below 70)
Jacques_de_Molay
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@Jacques_de_Molay, "Oil Drops to a Two-Week Low as China Heightens Pandemic Restrictions to Slow the Spread of the Delta Variant"
I am not sure if this is the true reason for the movement, but it would make sense.
China is great at the kabuki theater. The West will dance this tune just as before, and those that are not Chinese will suffer for it (well, also some of the poorer, rural Chinese, but I think China is willing to make such sacrifices)
maybe it was the German warship, or the unwise US diplomatic actions
VIP_Trading_Technologies
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@Jacques_de_Molay Hi again mate, this delta variant is scary, I am infected myself and can tell you that we only see the tip of the iceberg. I'm quite lucky to have received at least one dose of Astra Zeneca prior to my infection otherwise would have been a terrible nightmare. No Wonder why oil is collapsing after new lockdowns in China, India, Indonesia...Oil could go back to low 50s. Mind that most of the big hedge fund managers like to make big swings from high to low and vice-versa to make nice profits to their customers.
UnknownUnicorn8495492
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Long
VIP_Trading_Technologies
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@TheGreatLeo Long way down to 62 and below I guess....
UnknownUnicorn8495492
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@VIP_Trading_Technologies, Strongly disagree. 62? I've never seen it come. Perhaps next the month, not this month. This month is strong bullish, with a maximum of 78 next the level zone.. 62, Where did this come from?
Naturally this instability will involve major oil producing countries, and instability is good for the military industrial complex, which is also good for oil. I took some massively outsized positions in energy ETFs and some of the major players (Exxon, Chevron) directly after the US election.
ed: it seems some news out in the last hour or two is that Germany has even sent a warship to the South China Sea. when was the last time that happened? naturally these ships don't run on solar or wind turbines