Finally it's time to try some counter long. As a regular basic rule, in case of a counter trend trade I open only 0,5 trade unit at start, maybe will size up to max 1 trade unit if I see further signals on 4H. As always, you have to calculate position sizing and the proper stop based on your trading capital, your maximum risk / trade and (I use 20 periods ATR).
- Heikin Ashi candle yesterday with both upper and lower wicks. Today candle is green (partly due to contract switch from Sept to Oct), haDelta further up. HA Oscillator switches to .
- PSAR hit. It will be also important to see a daily close above Tenkan Sen
- Possible first tgt is ard 47
- Probably the 13/Aug long wicked candle is false due to wrong data feed, Oil was never trading that low. If we take that out, there was now substantial lower low in last few days.
- setup goes neutral. Weak Tenkan/Kijun cross happened. Price is above Kijun and future Senkou B line. Actually Price enterred a possible buy zone. It is up to you how you enter long here based on your strategy. You can wait for pull back, you can buy now, you can wait for more confirmation (final Kumo breakout), but you have to make sure you have a proper position sizing and a proper stop loss (not lower than 41!) which makes you a nice expected risk/reward, and which on the other hand protects your capital in case the trade doesn't work.
Once more: risk- and money management is a lot more important than the entry point or the signal itself! The setup certanly looks better than it did on 29/July, but we never know if mkt tricks us same way (or other way) again, or if it is gonna work out well.
Right now this trade setup is a possible swing up within the major downtrend, so I don't suggest anybody to go "all in".
You always have to control your risk compared to the probabilities. That's why I personally do counter swing trades only with 0,5 - max 1 trade units (calcualted from my total trading capital under risk, volatility and max 1,75 ATR stop loss)