2 Scenarios for Oil, the only question is "How High?"
At the risk of sounding like a broken record player, another bounce is on the cards. I say bounce because it's due to be "corrective", which means there will still be a new low to follow.
Currently we can see that the divergence on the MACD is even greater than when we were looking for the red wave iv, a MACD "buy" signal could provide a great entry for the short term bounce.
I should also note that we can see that wave (ii) blue lasted about 7-8 days, it wouldn't surprise me to see the expected wave (iv) in blue last about the same duration... the arrows in the chart had to be fitted for illustrative purposes of direction and price, not so much time. So please consider that I suspect this correction would last a similar duration to what we say with the sideways drifting wave (ii) in blue.
There are 2 main scenarios I'm envisioning with this correction, illustrated with RED and BLUE arrows. I'm expecting the structure to be the same, namely 3 wave advance, followed by a decline to new lows which has the potential to buy for a multi-year bull market.
The only difference between these two scenarios, is how high the correction is expected to go.
Red - Target 41.85-42.00
Blue - Target 43.35 - 43.70
I've linked 2 previous charts on oil I've posted. The most recent which captured the wave iv (red) rally, but overestimated it. And a previous chart which puts the BLUE labels into context.
Ultimately I think Oil will get to around 38 before the "mega" buy and smart money moves in. Let's wait and see.
Currently we can see that the divergence on the MACD is even greater than when we were looking for the red wave iv, a MACD "buy" signal could provide a great entry for the short term bounce.
I should also note that we can see that wave (ii) blue lasted about 7-8 days, it wouldn't surprise me to see the expected wave (iv) in blue last about the same duration... the arrows in the chart had to be fitted for illustrative purposes of direction and price, not so much time. So please consider that I suspect this correction would last a similar duration to what we say with the sideways drifting wave (ii) in blue.
There are 2 main scenarios I'm envisioning with this correction, illustrated with RED and BLUE arrows. I'm expecting the structure to be the same, namely 3 wave advance, followed by a decline to new lows which has the potential to buy for a multi-year bull market.
The only difference between these two scenarios, is how high the correction is expected to go.
Red - Target 41.85-42.00
Blue - Target 43.35 - 43.70
I've linked 2 previous charts on oil I've posted. The most recent which captured the wave iv (red) rally, but overestimated it. And a previous chart which puts the BLUE labels into context.
Ultimately I think Oil will get to around 38 before the "mega" buy and smart money moves in. Let's wait and see.
