Fundamental / Psychological Analysis
In the last week the oil price corrected as expected and is now in a critical zone. Should no rebounce be seen within the next few weeks I expect further price crashes in the direction of $ 40 (will also publish soon an analysis for that scenario). This is clearly visible on the weekly and monthly charts. If US and China do not agree in trading war or the world economy continues to decline this could hurt the oil price very much. Currently there are many uncertain investors who could make a panic sellout if price crashes through $ 58 . First analysts also speak of a bear market since the price is now 20% from the last high in October away. I still wait for clear bearish confirmations that could arise within the next week
Technical Analysis
The oil price clearly reached the 0,5 Fibonacci support line from the last up trend from Jun. 17 to Oct. 18. with many buyers entering the market again but there was no strong chart technical rebounce on Friday and because of that I expect a small final correction to $ 58.50, from here I expect a big entry of buyers into the market and thus who expected the turnaround.
RSI and MACD are strongly oversold or have arrived at the end of the bearish zone where a trend reversal can also be expected within the next few weeks.
For long entries, I recommend first sales at $ 67 and $ 70. As soon as the price is above $ 63, the stop loss should be constantly raised.
Please follow me for further analysis in the commodity, forex and crypto area.
In the last week the oil price corrected as expected and is now in a critical zone. Should no rebounce be seen within the next few weeks I expect further price crashes in the direction of $ 40 (will also publish soon an analysis for that scenario). This is clearly visible on the weekly and monthly charts. If US and China do not agree in trading war or the world economy continues to decline this could hurt the oil price very much. Currently there are many uncertain investors who could make a panic sellout if price crashes through $ 58 . First analysts also speak of a bear market since the price is now 20% from the last high in October away. I still wait for clear bearish confirmations that could arise within the next week
Technical Analysis
The oil price clearly reached the 0,5 Fibonacci support line from the last up trend from Jun. 17 to Oct. 18. with many buyers entering the market again but there was no strong chart technical rebounce on Friday and because of that I expect a small final correction to $ 58.50, from here I expect a big entry of buyers into the market and thus who expected the turnaround.
RSI and MACD are strongly oversold or have arrived at the end of the bearish zone where a trend reversal can also be expected within the next few weeks.
For long entries, I recommend first sales at $ 67 and $ 70. As soon as the price is above $ 63, the stop loss should be constantly raised.
Please follow me for further analysis in the commodity, forex and crypto area.
The analyses provided are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice or recommendations to buy or sell anything. The information presented is based on personal research and interpretation.
