TVC:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
3463 41 48
Oil             is showing all the signs of a rally out of the daily cycle low.
Yesterday we broke above the previous(?) daily cycle - the DCL is still not confirmed - trendline and today early morning GMT             we break below it but it was bought in a few hours.
Oil             starting to show strength. If it's a new daily cycle the bulls should buy every dip. And they are doing their job.

The next mission is to break above the blue trendline . That is the previous daily cycle's trendline . If we break that - and it seems as I'm writing this it will - our long position has a "DCL injurance".
What does it mean? It means that this is the breakout you can buy . It will has a very high chance that we are going to rally above 48-49 and later above 52.
So all those who missed the lower entry point this is the place I would enter with longs.

If we break above the blue trendline I will switch to lower timeframe with my posts to see the details of the story. If I'm right this is the 2nd daily cycle of this intermediate cycle. This one usually produces the best rally.
Who was short it is the time to get out and change the direction. All the losses you made on your short trades you will earn back in the next 4-5 weeks.

And MACD is looking god now. Crossover below 0....
Let the rally begin!
Comment: We turned down from the trendline again.
Timewise a drop to the 200 SMA is still on the table in the next 2 weeks.
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+2 Reply
VirtualFax pipizer
Have similar view; so, tend to agree. As for timing, I'm thinking Tue, maybe even Wed. At the same time, Mon is equally not impossible.
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pipizer VirtualFax
You sure? ;)
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VirtualFax pipizer
I can never be sure in trading. You best you can do is to learn (a lot), analyze (a lot), plan for the worst, hope for the best, and whatever is the outcome, use it as a further learning experience.
+2 Reply
pipizer VirtualFax
Good thoughts.... No one is sure in trading only experience make us to spot and catch good trades! Have a good luck!
+1 Reply
VirtualFax pipizer
Something along these lines

snapshot
+2 Reply
VirtualFax VirtualFax
By the way, this bullish move would take Oil to the IH&S neckline which could potentially shoot the price up for another $20 or so... If the pattern works out, of course.

For example, recently I witnessed what looked like H&S pattern almost finished forming for Yahoo but then completely destroyed over the last two days. Though I'm still bearish on that stock.

At the same time, Oil's H&S is much better shaped and over much longer period of time
+1 Reply
would you add to an existing position then or is it being too greedy?
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If we break and hold the gains then yes. But be prepeared to test back the breakout point at 46.50.
+1 Reply
great analyses, OPEC might push it to 55
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Hmm but I'm just really suscipcious of the recent hike;; oil never really moves like this at these times... do you happen to know what caused it Arpi?
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"oil never really moves like this at these times"
Why do you think that? Seasonality?
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alan_watch chartwatchers
It moved 70ticks in 2 minutes around GMT9:42 without any EIA API or any economic event... and I cannot find any news so I was just wondering... and what I was implying was oil never really moves much around 9~11 GMT
+1 Reply
NihalCassim alan_watch
oil does surprise, the 3 previous api and eia releases have been positive for oil and it barely reacted and didnt manage to hold on to gains on two occasions. I think markets were just waiting for BoJ and Fed and were preparing for a change in status quo by them. With no change by the central banks, the dollar is looking weak and commodities better. Thanks to Arpi who gave us insight into the Feds behavior.
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andrej123456 chartwatchers
Yes, but this time is different. The US are trying to push oil price sa low as possible. I think oil is trying to follow forex pair XAU/RUB, its in a strong upside trend. If you are watching cot, you can see that there ware big and sharp spikes in short oil positions.
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andrej123456 andrej123456
'were'
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Folks, if you haven't entered an oil related position yet, I suggest considering waiting until price touches the bottom of the triangle (42.40-43.00 area) but also buying with tight stops. Descending triangles often times represent bearish distribution patterns. I'll be more than happy to see Oil run but you owe yourself a favour to play safe.
+1 Reply
watsonzou26 VirtualFax
Agree. Great chart. But why you said "descending triangle represents bearish"?
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VirtualFax watsonzou26
Because I hope that what we see forming will turn itself into more of a falling wedge:

goo.gl/eCpW6N

as opposed to a descending triangle:

goo.gl/NEDwrS

But as you can see from my chart, at this point it is hard to say. There is still a case for both at the moment (i.e. the bottom could still end up being either flat or declining). Only the nature of the bounce will tell.
+1 Reply
VirtualFax watsonzou26
In such situations the cycle analysis, which I haven't mastered yet, could come in handy.

Since Arpi is great in cycles, he seems feels much more comfortable and confident in these circumstances then me, as I'm only applying the technicals. But he is an awesome instructor and I believe I'm a decent student, so it makes learning just a matter of time...
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watsonzou26 VirtualFax
Yes, Arpi is great! I learned a lot but i am still a student,too.

Just IF, if price breaks uptrend line and descending triangle bottom line, high possibility of seeing $35-36. BTW i see a bat pattern here.
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shinsky VirtualFax
Nice try bud!
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VirtualFax shinsky
Well, I didn't try anything but simply expressed my opinion based on the structure that's been shaping out. My approach is that I'd rather miss a rally then be caught holding a bag of a quickly losing value paper. especially when it comes to 3x.

Besides, this spike still needs to prove the rally has started. If it rallies indeed - great! But something tells me (strictly my view, I always call for people to rely exclusively on their own analysis) that the triangle pattern will finalize itself before (and if; "if" is always present) the actual run begins.

I also have open buy orders at the bottom of that pattern. Just in case...
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Looks like you bought into a false breakout of the recent down trend.
+1 Reply
possible reversal on 30'

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USOIL - Short
prob next week or the week after to go long
+1 Reply
I read Iran is seriously considering freezing production at current levels as suggested by OPEC. At the last meeting they told OPEC to buzz off. Opec has a meeting soon. Has anyone else heard about this freeze. Chartwatchers observations appear to reflect a freeze scenario.
+1 Reply
oldpeter kidbroge
Reuters: Saudis offer oil cut for OPEC deal if Iran freezes output
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Hello Chartwatchers. Are you still holding your crude oil CFDs ?
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chartwatchers PRO andrej123456
Yes. I'm waiting for a breakout above 52 in the next 1-1.5 months.
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andrej123456 chartwatchers
ok. I am holding long miny futures , when do you think the price will stop, where you have set your TP ? ... I think 53-55 USD/barrel, Iwill set to 55USD probably
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Do you think we are done going down or still need to tag some lower MA's?
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Done. DCL at its place
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tbuckle PRO chartwatchers
Two days later and $3 later you tell me now it's done. lol
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Sorry . I was busy with buying oil. :)
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tbuckle PRO chartwatchers
ha ha! thanks for the reply regardless. : )
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You guys need to stop doubting chartwatchers :D
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Boom! Blue line broken on OPEC production limits talk....
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thumbs up :)
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