False Breakout for Oil? I suspect so

FX:USOIL   CFDs on Crude Oil (WTI)
579 5 10
Following on from my last post on this market, I suspect that this is a false breakout which will catch a few bulls out. In short I believe we will see a reversal down to around $34.00 before the REAL rally starts. Time will tell but this is a rough illustration of my expectations currently.
Have you adapted to the current markets or, are you still thinking we fall back down to 35?
max_andronichuk Sonic_scheme
The rally in the last two days has certainly caused me to have to go back to the drawing board.
As things stand I'm waiting to see a few more clues about what is playing out... so as such I am not acting on it at all for the time being.

If momentum begins to pick up and buying continues then I will have to jump in long if I can find an entry from a retracement.

But for now, I'm admitting that as things stand I currently have no idea what to expect, so I wait for the picture to become a little clearer before posting a detailed update.

Sonic_scheme max_andronichuk
Going back a few weeks when you posted the two scenario, it seem the bull ride started with scenario 1. I am too waiting for a pull back to either enter long or wait to see what the markets will do. Have you looked at the monthly charts? they have a MACD crossing even on the daily it does not look like there will be a aggressive pull back.
max_andronichuk Sonic_scheme
Yes on a monthly chart I suspect that we could see the beginnings of a new bull market from here taking us up to $100 and beyond.
Initially yes I am thinking that this goes back to my scenario 1 illustration, but the key is now to set some "tests" and a road map for how it will play out.

The initial illustration itself didn't actually have much detail, it was merely saying that there will be a rally and I only used it to give a contrast to scenario 2, which was my view at the time. Now that we appear to be in rally territory I will need to make it much more detailed if we are to work with it.
Sonic_scheme max_andronichuk
ah, i understand. what key levels are you thinking? I will wait for the next chart you post when you gather enough information.
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