max_andronichuk
Long

2 scenarios for the Oil Bulls...

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
8 months ago
This chart is linked to a smaller time frame analysis I have just posted a few minutes ago. In that analysis I am working under the assumption that we are in Scenario 1 (as illustrated here).

My conclusions are that a buy should be take and stops quickly brought to break even once in good profit. Why?
Case 1 - Don't enter long and we are in scenario 1... miss a great entry for the bull market continuing.
Case 2 - Enter long position but we are actually in scenario 2... if we bring stops to break even as soon as we are slightly in profit but scenario 2 plays out... no loss. But we don't miss risking the bull market in case we're wrong.

The biggest thing to take away from these 2 ideas is that I am bullish on oil             ... the only question is "Is the bull market ready to resume?"... Personally I think not quite... but I don't want to miss risking it.

Hence here are my 2 possible outcomes illustrated.

Any questions?
8 months ago
Trade active: Today's action further strengthens my belief that we are about to see scenario 2 play out... largely due to the fact that the rally as labelled C in my scenario 2 illustration is (currently) of equal length or the rally labelled A. This matches an Elliott Wave suggestion and appears to be a nice fit for the analysis.

I'm entering an aggressive short at 39.50 with stops above 39.85 (current high of today's rally) with a view that we will see a decline now below 36.60.

If this happens I will be 90% confident that we are seeing scenario 2 playing out.
nice analysis.
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max_andronichuk sanjay.prajapat.311
8 months ago
Thank you :)
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Sonic_scheme
7 months ago
could you update on this post? Been following since the call of the break of the channel, is this buy all dip now?
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max_andronichuk Sonic_scheme
7 months ago
Hi Sonic_scheme, I'll try and get an updated chart posted tonight. In short I think this may be a false rally to trigger stops which I am expecting to come back down again. Give me some time and I'll have a chart up for you shortly.
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