I am listening live to the ECB press conference and one piece of information that traders apparently are ignoring for the moment is this direct quote from Lagarde :
" Based on the current price of oil and the future one, we believe that inflation will decrease in the future"
As we know, oil is the main driver of inflation. So if the ECB believes in the future inflation will decrease, it stands to reason also the price of oil to decrease.
other reasons for the potential down move:
* OPEC anounced that from August they will relax the production cuts. (so more oil pumped in the market) * price action require a correction * Melbourne shut down for 6 weeks and other big cities might follow *the reopening in US are slowing down because of the increase in the number of cases
Let me know in the comments what you think. I would like to hear other ideas from you guys.