USOIL
Let's say this first - I'm no expert and probably wrong. My trading experience is very limited. However I have followed the market fairly closely over the last couple years and today I had too much time to stare at charts. Let's look at the above chart that I haven't been able to look away from today.
First chart in question is of WTI Crude Oil since the start of this year. Sentiment has been very bullish during this time with smaller dips developing into larger movements as we've moved towards the end of the year. These white trend lines however have held very well during this period. Volume profile (emphasis highlighted) would seem like there would be less resistance to go up than down.
If there would be a sharp move down towards 58 or lower that would be a level where I would start to be more cautious and probably close most of my own positions at least for a while.
This recent price movement has been very sharp and would implicate in my view either a significant risk for another lockdown/recessionary period (less demand) or a release of reserves / supply increase (more supply), both of which I think are possible but not that probable in my opinion. China real estate market would be the most obvious and likely source for a longer downtrend in all markets including crude oil, but it seems to be contained for now.
Taking a closer look, overall there seems to be good amount of support around the price of this writing at around $66.4. Price action during the last 12 hours also seems supportive in my view, which I followed during the day. As a curiosity, the movement for the second period pictured has been pretty similar to the first one that started on 30th Nov.
Again I have very little trading experience but this seems like a good time to be bullish on oil. Long-term I think that under-investment in oil production and infrastructure will prove to be a significant factor in driving crude oil price higher.
Feel free to comment what you think. Trade safe.
Comment:
Went over 20, 50h EMA pretty confidently on open. Let's see what happens.
Comment:
I think that breaking through the high volume area around 67.8 to 68.6 is the next range to look at. Not trading at that resolution personally though.