We are getting near to the daily cycle low. RSI has reached overbought territory I think we want to tag the 50 EMA and the rally can start again to new highs.
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RSI is in oversold territory.
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tbuckle
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Before this epic rally or short squeeze we were in an EPIC and massive downtrend. Isn't it possible that the last month has just been a short squeeze/sucker bounce/false break out - that has fooled a lot of people into thinking we are in a bull market and that now we are just resuming the year long downtrend? If not, why? Lastly, how low would this have to go for your bullish thesis to be nullified?
chartwatchers
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I use sentimentrader also.
With these few days decline sentiment is bearish again.
So the next leg can start up anytime.
Memorize this moment tbuckle. In these new markets this is the moment when you have to pull the trigger and go against your emotions.
This is the moment when you feel you have to get rid of every oil position because it will go down and make a lower low.
But it will not.
The train will start to go up again and will leave all the bears and skeptisches at the station.
Sentiment, cycles, timing shows that it's turningwhen the 6 day RSI is leaving overbought levels.
tbuckle
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Sentiment seems to be falling into the category of "oh crap the short squeeze is over, oil may head back down to near old lows...sell, short, etc." Is this the case and if so do you still recommend going long?
chartwatchers
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I still think it's a long.
I will be adding to the Oil portfolio, and also in my portfolio.
Look at oil stocks they are just consolidating and not falling.
deltafox
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Agreed long here however may be a Wave B corrective and then C down [OR] this whole run was the first wave... intrigued to see the impact of fundamentals as they are broadly negative
chartwatchers
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My problem that all the datas are manipulated and false.
I dont believe in fundamentals.
I'm watching sentiment, cycles, indicators, chart and candle patterns in a very few instrument.
That's the only way to make money in these days...
normichtrader
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I agree. I added long USO June calls at market close Friday. Too many larger forces that want/need oil higher for it to fall much more. Do you see US oil breaking 50 within the next 1.5 months?
chartwatchers
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Yes. Around in 50-60 trading days (maximum 2.5 months ) we will make a higher high.
Higher high= above 50$ .
chartwatchers
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The RSI is in oversold territory...
Sorry for the mistake.